In the 19th century, the world became increasingly polarized, with the strong nations growing stronger and the weak nations becoming weaker, causing a dramatic shift in the international landscape. The old empires, having seized the opportunities presented by the Industrial Revolution, quickly took control of vast resources. To protect their own interests, they began to suppress the latecomers. This time, Britain and Austria appeared to act to curb France’s expansion, but in reality, it was also a clash between the old and emerging imperialist nations. Not every country is like the United States which is blessed with abundant domestic resources and markets. For newly emerging nations to rise, they must seize enough resources and markets, which leads to conflicts between old and new empires. The Kingdom of Prussia was not weak, and if it annexed the Kingdom of Poland, it would grow even stronger. With enough power but not enough resources to match, Prussia would inevitably become a challenger to the established order in the future. This had nothing to do with whether the government wanted peace. If they didn’t develop industry, that would be one thing, but once industrialization took off, the need for raw materials and markets would drive them to challenge the world order. In the original timeline, the German Empire (Second Reich) rose too quickly, and the British overestimated the strength of France. By the time they realized what was happening, it was too late, and they had to get directly involved in a world war. In contrast, the Americans across the ocean were much luckier. They had abundant resources and managed to disguise themselves as the harmless “Uncle Sam,” successfully avoiding suppression by the old empires. After a long silence, Foreign Minister Geoffrey Friedman said, “Something is off. The secret negotiations between Britain and Austria must have been highly confidential. How could we have discovered it so easily? We must remember that this situation doesn’t just involve us, it also implicates the French. Even if the French government is internally unstable, they wouldn’t simply allow Britain and Austria to plot against them.” The fact that the intelligence came so easily is the biggest flaw. Such a secret plan would be known to fewer than ten people, all of whom would be top leaders of their respective countries. Under normal circumstances, there shouldn’t be any possibility of a leak. William I’s eyes lit up, and he asked with anticipation, “Are you saying that one of the two, Britain or Austria, deliberately leaked the information and that this alliance is not strong, but just a temporary union for mutual benefit?” Geoffrey Friedman shook his head, “No, both Britain and Austria do indeed want to take the Rhineland from us. However, there may be differences between them on how to hand it over to the German Federal Empire. The German Federal is fragmented because the government led by Hanover is weak and hasn’t managed to consolidate the country’s power. Hanover only controls 40% of the nation’s territory, and its population and economy account for less than a third of the total. Due to the political system, the German Federal Empire’s highest authority, the Imperial Parliament, still operates on the traditional “one state, one vote” system. Whatever the central government wants to do, the Imperial Parliament can easily veto it. After so many years, the German Federal Empire is still the same. Hanover has tried several times to consolidate the country but has been blocked by the Imperial Parliament. The German region has been divided for hundreds of years, and everyone is used to state politics. Changing this situation is almost impossible. However, with the addition of the Rhineland, things would be different. If the central government directly governed the Rhineland, the balance of power would shift. Hanover alone, even if it wanted to overturn the table, would be no match for the combined forces of the other states. But with the Rhineland, the central government would have an absolute advantage. From Austria’s perspective, there was no problem in giving the Rhineland to the German Federal Empire, but it must join as a separate state. Allowing Hanover to grow too strong would undermine Austria’s strategy for unifying Germany. This is precisely what the British want most. From the beginning, there were significant differences between Britain and Austria. It’s possible that the two countries failed to reach an agreement, and the Austrian government decided to sabotage Britain’s plan by leaking the information.” This was already close to the truth. Now that the information had leaked, completing the original plan was out of the question. Not only were external forces against it, but even within the German Federal Empire itself, there was strong resistance. If the central government wants direct control over the Rhineland, the smaller states beneath them will not only refuse to contribute funds but will also use the Imperial Parliament to legally veto the territorial deal. Unless they could do it secretly and create a fait accompli, the German federal government wouldn’t even be able to get its own house in order. After all, this was nothing more than a loose federation, barely different from the medieval German principalities. If the vassal states didn’t cooperate, what could the Emperor possibly do? Given the strength of the Kingdom of Hanover, even if they wanted to unify the German Federal Empire by force, they didn’t have the means to pull it off. And with Austria waiting like a tiger stalking its prey, a single misstep could drag them all down. William I rubbed his temples. In his seventies, he no longer had the energy he once had. This tangled web of international intrigue was just exhausting to think about. Now, he found himself deeply conflicted. On the one hand, he didn’t want to see the German Federal Empire grow stronger and increase the defensive pressure on the Kingdom of Prussia. On the other hand, he longed for the Confederation to become powerful, to cut off Austria’s path to unifying Germany. At this moment, regret washed over him. If only he’d dared to take a risk back then, and split the German territories with Austria, the current landscape would’ve been entirely different. With a sigh, William I said, “Our options are running out. Now it seems that Britain and Austria aren’t the only ones eyeing the Rhineland. The French government probably has similar intentions. After all, whether the Rhineland becomes independent, falls under the German Federal Empire, or merges with Belgium, it would be easier for them to seize it than if it remained in our hands. What do you all think is the best course of action for us?” Prime Minister Moltke replied, “First, we can rule out selling it to France. If the French get their hands on the Rhineland, the balance of power will be shattered. At that point, Austria might not be able to contain the French, and who knows if this Napoleon IV will turn out to be another Napoleon. Allowing France to grow stronger is too dangerous. The remaining options are letting the Rhineland become independent or selling it to Belgium or the German Federal Empire in exchange for funds. The latter involves taking sides in the Anglo-Austrian struggle, another case of choosing a side. Given the current situation, it’s too risky for us to align with any great power. I believe selling it to Belgium for a sum of money is more in line with our current interests. The priority right now is to annex Poland, digest it, and prepare for war with the Russians.” Indeed, this is about “current interests.” In the long run, holding onto the Rhineland would undoubtedly be more beneficial to Prussia. But that’s impossible. The old empires aren’t foolish. Unless they abandon the annexation of Poland, the masters of balancing power, Britain and Austria, won’t just sit back and let them have their way. In the long term, even if they let the Rhineland become independent but secretly maintain control, that would still be better for Prussia than selling it outright. But in the short term, it’s different. The Prussian government was broke, and even if they could control the Rhineland in the future, they needed to deal with the current financial crisis first. Selling to the German Federal Empire would require taking sides. Now that the Prussian government owes the British a huge debt, they can only side with the British. It might feel good now, but it would deeply offend Austria. What about the future Russo-Prussian War? According to the plan, the Prussian government was preparing to ally with Austria to thoroughly defeat the Russian Empire. Without resolving the Russian enemy, Prussia could never be at peace. Minister of War Roon, “It’s not that simple. Don’t forget about the French. If the French government risks sending troops to occupy the Rhineland, what will we do then? I don’t think Austria would go to war with the French over the Rhineland. If they wanted to act, they would have done so when France annexed Italy. I think the Austrian government’s strategy is not really about unifying the German territories. Austria’s territory is already vast, and its population is large enough. They don’t lack anything. From the actions of the Austrian government, this seems more like a political slogan. Austria already occupied most of the Balkans and is now attacking the Ottoman Empire. If they manage to conquer the Anatolian Peninsula, the entire eastern Mediterranean coast will be their territory. It would practically be a second Byzantine Empire.” Rebuilding the Byzantine Empire, now that ambition is no smaller than unifying the German territories. Austria hasn’t shouted about rebuilding the Byzantine Empire, but their expanding territory certainly brings it to mind. William I interrupted, “What Austria wants to do is not something we can stop. If they do have such grand ambitions, that’s actually good news for us. To restore the Byzantine Empire, their biggest conflicts of interest would be with the Russians and the French. From how the Austrian government allowed France to annex Italy, their next move should be against the Russians. Before the Russian Empire collapses, we can cooperate with Austria. But the Habsburg monarchy is best at diplomacy, not warfare. Franz is a master of this. Since his ascension, Austria has expanded through diplomatic means. I don’t believe they would suddenly become so aggressive. It’s very likely this is just a smokescreen they’re deliberately putting up.” ... While the Prussian government was in a dilemma, the French government was bustling. Factional conflicts were constant in the government, with the Republican, Orléanist, and Legitimist parties, suppressed by Napoleon III, all becoming active again. Napoleon IV lacked sufficient prestige to suppress various political forces and could only play a balancing act among the factions according to the plan left by Napoleon III. The imperial power was guaranteed, but strife between factions intensified. Unfortunately, partisan attacks were brought into government work, and opposition for the sake of opposition was common. The French Empire, feared by all parties, was unable to make decisions at this time, which greatly troubled Napoleon IV. If it weren’t for his father’s instructions, he would have already acted decisively and made the decisions himself. Fortunately, he held back. Otherwise, he would soon realize just how low the bureaucrats could go.
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