Franz shook his head and said, “The immediate benefits aren’t important. What we need now is a new strategy, one that the nations of Europe can believe in—a grand strategy. The old strategy of German unification can no longer fool anyone. With the growth and strength of the Kingdom of Prussia, we are no longer capable of swallowing them whole. Now, no matter how loudly we shout our slogans, the nations of Europe won’t believe us. Since the unification of Germany is unattainable, we must certainly have a new strategic plan. We should throw out another smokescreen to distract the other nations, preventing them from discovering our true intentions.” Truth and falsehood intertwined, over the years, the Austrian government has concocted many strategies, but the only one people truly believed in was the “German Unification Strategy.” These strategies were all genuine and entirely in Austria’s interest. However, due to various practical reasons and the low probability of success, the Austrian government didn’t invest much in them. For example, the Continental Hegemony Plan was devised by the Austrian government to seize European dominance, but due to its low success rate, it faded quickly and now lies in the archives. Another example is the Naval Supremacy Strategy, which emerged during the Anglo-French-Austrian naval arms race. According to the plan, Austria would build a hundred ironclads within ten years to challenge Britain’s naval supremacy. It was a good plan, but when it came to implementation, problems arose. Aside from a burst of newspaper hype, which gave the Royal Navy an excuse to expand, the actual actions taken soon shifted. Ironclads come in various classes, ranging from a few hundred tons to over ten thousand tons, and the effectiveness of different classes of battleships in naval warfare varies greatly. After creating some initial buzz, the British soon realized they’d been fooled. In terms of sheer numbers, Austria’s navy had built over a hundred ships well before the ten-year mark. However, most of these were small vessels, primarily coastal patrol boats. The main battleships increased by only a few, and even though the ten-year deadline hadn’t yet passed, no one believed the Austrian government would continue mass-producing warships in the remaining time. All of this was just on the surface. The plan would have been exposed from the start if the British hadn’t intentionally taken the bait. It wasn’t easy for the Royal Navy to justify expansion either—convincing Parliament to allocate funds requires an excuse, after all. In this regard, France and Austria were like allies of the Royal Navy. As soon as France and Austria mentioned building ships, the British would immediately follow suit. With the Royal Navy’s active cooperation, it wasn’t hard to fool the laypeople in Parliament. Once they approved the funding, even if the plan was eventually exposed, the money would have already been turned into ships. In the original timeline, during the Anglo-German naval arms race, there were accusations that the navies of both countries were colluding to extract military funds. “Collusion” might be too strong a word, but the suspicion that they were jointly scheming to secure funding wasn’t entirely unfounded. The same is true now. Every time the navies of Britain, France, and Austria expanded, they used each other as an excuse. As long as the rationale was convincing, the government would be willing to spend the money. Before the three nations formed an alliance, even if some people saw through the scheme, they still had to grit their teeth and keep up, as no one dared to risk halting naval construction. International politics is incredibly complex, and it’s very difficult to discern the true intentions of competitors. But it doesn’t matter—whatever the competitor’s goals are, as long as you prevent them from achieving them, you’ve already succeeded. Ever since Austria hoisted the banner of the German unification strategy, all the nations of Europe have been working hard to prevent Austria from unifying the German territories. Britain and France have been closely monitoring the German Federal Empire, fearing that Austria might suddenly make a move against them. The rise of the Kingdom of Prussia was driven not only by Britain and France’s desire to use them as a tool against Russia but also by their strategy of arming Prussia to prevent Austria from unifying the German territories. With everyone on the European continent working to contain Austria, Franz naturally didn’t want to provoke any unnecessary conflicts. By drawing Britain’s and France’s attention to Europe, Austria’s expansion in Africa was able to proceed smoothly. Now that Austrian Africa has grown and strengthened, its foundation remains shaky. If the European nations were to discover the Austrian government’s true intentions, who could guarantee that John Bull wouldn’t encourage Austrian Africa to declare independence? If that happens, with France providing the ideology, Britain doing the persuading, and a large sum of money thrown into the mix, who knows what kind of trouble it could stir up? On the surface, Franz has consistently emphasized that Austria’s strategic focus is on unifying the German territories. Everyone believes this, including the Austrians themselves. Except for the upper echelons of the government, no one knows that Austria’s actions on the European continent are merely a facade. Even if Britain and France suspect something, they still prioritize safeguarding Europe. Otherwise, the saying “the fake becomes real” might just come true. Prime Minister Felix commented, “Your Majesty, if we were to claim we have ambitions in Poland, no one would believe us. Both Prussia and Russia consider Poland as their prize. No matter how unwise we are, we can’t attempt to take Poland for ourselves. If we were to split Poland, it would be over quickly and wouldn’t serve as a significant enough distraction for the other nations. Perhaps we could use the idea of reclaiming the Holy Land as a decoy. If Britain and France don’t buy it, we could let them believe we aim to annex the Anatolian Peninsula. The Ottoman Empire should be weighty enough.” The reality is quite ironic—avoiding action against Poland isn’t because Poland is too strong, but rather because it’s too weak, so weak that it would collapse with a single push. When Poland falls, the final result is simply to be partitioned. The strategic goal is directly achieved, so the strategy naturally ends. Unless they were prepared to engage in a life-and-death struggle with Prussia and Russia, that was the likely outcome—gaining more territory with almost no other benefits. Moreover, they would have had to deal with the headaches caused by the increase in the Polish population. The Austrian government hadn’t engaged in actions of this kind that would destabilize the empire for many years. The Ottoman Empire was different. It was large enough that Austria couldn’t swallow it in one bite, and there were few competitors. The severely weakened Russian Empire wasn’t in a position to compete with Austria over the Ottoman Empire. At most, they could have a share in the spoils. As long as they manage the timing and avoid completely destroying the Ottoman Empire in one go, with a back-and-forth conflict where they slightly come out on top, the European nations will still be happy to see Austria locked in a struggle with the Ottomans. If Britain and France try to interfere, they will likely support the Ottoman Empire. Franz hadn’t been worried about that at all. After all, you can’t prop up something that is inherently weak. The idea of the “chosen one” rising from the ashes is merely a fantasy—the internal conflicts within the Ottoman Empire are too severe for any chance of revival. Dragging things out would benefit everyone: Austria could conceal its true intentions, Britain and France would achieve their goal of containing Austria, the Ottoman Empire would receive aid, and Prussia and Russia could also focus on their own conflicts. In the process of this prolonged confrontation, Austria could quietly nibble away at the Middle East, securing enough energy resources for the next century and taking hold of half of global hegemony. A small conflict every three years, a major one every ten years—this play could go on for a long time. The Habsburgs and the Ottoman Empire were sworn enemies, so they wouldn’t even need to worry about finding a reason to attack them—revenge had always been the best justification. After studying the map, Franz pointed to Poland and said, “This isn’t enough. To make this play more convincing, we need to add a few supporting characters. Prussia has always had its eye on Poland, so let’s give them what they want and sell it to them at a good price when the opportunity arises. If the Prussians manage to defeat the Russian Empire, then this territory will be ours. Let’s give them a bit of a boost and strengthen the resolve of the Junker nobles.” Franz drew a circle on the map, encompassing a large swath of Russian territory, effectively turning the Black Sea into an Austrian lake. Two hundred years of Russian efforts would be wiped out in an instant. After this, it would be extremely difficult for a diminished Russia to rise again. Even if they managed to regain strength, they would have to deal with Prussia first. As for Austria, Franz had no intention of crudely annexing Russian territory. Wouldn’t the defeated Russian government need someone to lend them a hand? Such a high-difficulty operation would undoubtedly require compensation. When the time came, the Austrian government could simply pay a sum of money to purchase those lands. The Americans had set a good example in this regard. Even though the French were essentially coerced into selling, on the surface, everything was above board—it was a legal transaction. As they watched Franz draw the circle, the others exchanged glances, pretending not to notice. Scheming against an ally like this was almost on par with the British. But by then, the Russo-Austrian alliance would have run its course. No longer being allies, this kind of maneuver would seem perfectly natural. Though the grand plans looked promising, not many were optimistic about Prussia. Defeating the Russians might be possible, but severely crippling them would be a much harder task. Unless the Russian government was brought to the brink of collapse, they were unlikely to accept Austria’s extortion. Achieving this third strategy would not be easy. Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “Your Majesty, the Kingdom of Prussia’s territory is too fragmented, which puts them under significant national defense pressure. If they can’t concentrate their forces, they might not even be able to defeat the Russians. After annexing Poland, Prussia would be quite powerful. We can’t let them continue to grow unchecked. I suggest we have the Prussians relinquish the Rhineland region. The Prussian government is currently broke, but the German Federal Empire is quite wealthy. Why not have them purchase the Rhineland?” This proposal was highly constructive. The Rhineland region was rich in coal and iron, with well-developed industry. If Prussia lost this outlying territory, its heavy industry would be severely crippled, greatly weakening its potential for development. If handled correctly, Franz wasn’t worried that the Prussian government would refuse. Potential is just potential—overcoming the current crisis is essential for any future success. Resolving their financial crisis and concentrating all their military power are crucial factors for winning the next war. As good as the Rhineland was, its proximity to the French made it less appealing. If war broke out, this outlying region would be nearly impossible to defend. While the British and French were highly wary of Austrian expansion on the European continent, they wouldn’t be concerned about the German Federal Empire expanding. Even with the addition of the Rhineland, the German Federal Empire would only be a middle-tier power, far from the threshold of the great powers. With Austria’s influence in the German Federal Empire, pushing through this deal wouldn’t be difficult. Even if the Imperial Parliament didn’t approve it, manipulating one of the member states to purchase it would work just as well. Austria wasn’t short of allies within the Empire. Having quickly sorted out his thoughts, Franz nodded, “This plan is excellent. Without the Rhineland, Prussia’s strategic focus will completely shift eastward. The Foreign Ministry should refine the specific details. We can’t be seen to be directly involved, so it would be best to use the British as intermediaries. The British have gone to great lengths to keep Germany divided. If we can convince them that strengthening the German Federal Empire would make it harder for us to unify Germany, I’m sure the British government will do all the work for us. The French should remain relatively subdued for now, but we can’t afford to let our guard down. If they find a way to exploit the situation, we’ll just be doing the work for someone else.” Years ago, the British helped turn Germany from a two-way split into a three-way division, stalling Prussia’s rise. Franz had no qualms about orchestrating a repeat performance.
[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]
Thank you for the chapter
ReplyDelete