The Russo-Japanese War was only a small disturbance. Its impact on the international situation was nothing compared to the much more closely watched Anglo-Austrian confrontation. Ever since Britain withdrew from the free trade system, relations between the two countries had deteriorated sharply. Friction and disputes that had originally been contained by both sides began rising to the surface. The domestic press in particular acted as if chaos were entertainment. Not only did they fan the flames, they also exaggerated the conflicts, and some even openly shouted for “war”. The air itself seemed to carry a sense of tension. Anyone who was even slightly sensitive to political currents could feel that the footsteps of war were drawing near. It was not as if no one tried to mediate. Scholars, public figures, and influential voices all issued calls urging the two governments to sit down and talk. But it was pointless. The conflict between their core interests was too deep, and neither side could make major concessions. If the issues could have been settled through negotiation, they would have been resolved long ago. Who wanted to throw real money into the bottomless pit of war? Did anyone truly enjoy fighting? Franz had no objection to signing a peace agreement. He was even willing to accept maintaining the current status quo. The problem was that the British did not dare agree. The British Isles were small by nature, and their potential for development had been restrained from the beginning. Without imposing any restrictions, the power gap between the two sides would only continue to widen. Since the British government refused to yield, expecting the Holy Roman Empire to cripple its own strength was even more unrealistic. The Holy Roman government’s bottom line was clear. At most, they would accept maintaining the status quo and non-interference. Since a compromise at the negotiating table was impossible, the only option left was the law of the jungle. Victory would have to be decided on the battlefield. When the city gates catch fire, the fish in the moat suffer too. With Britain and the Holy Roman Empire, two major powers, preparing for a decisive showdown, Europe could not hope for peace. Choosing sides became the eternal question. Supporting one meant offending the other. Remaining neutral in a struggle for hegemony required strength as a foundation. Unfortunately, there were very few countries with that level of strength, and even fewer within Europe. For small countries, choosing a side is nothing less than a test of life and death. Picking the wrong one will not necessarily destroy the nation, but the government will almost certainly fall. The most pleasant experience of choosing a side was probably the anti-French war more than a decade ago. When the Austrian government went around gathering allies, the outcome was already nearly decided. The moment small countries declared their stance, the war ended. Things are different now. No one can see clearly who will win the Anglo-Austrian war. Both sides have their advantages. Either one could emerge as the final victor, and there is even a chance that neither can overpower the other and both end up badly hurt. Military experts are offering their analyses on who might win, but everyone has their own reasoning. This puts everyone’s judgment to the test. Aside from the small states that aligned with the Holy Roman Empire early on, the remaining countries must choose a side or, more accurately, gamble with their national destiny. The first to face this decision are the Nordic Federation, the Netherlands, and Portugal. Aside from these three, the other countries already supported the Holy Roman Empire in the previous conflict. Not all of them received large rewards, but as victors of the anti-French war, they did get their share of benefits by following the Empire. On this point, the Austrian government is far better than the British. Anyone can confirm this by simply flipping through a history book. Allies who follow Britain end up either crippled or close to ruined. Those lucky enough not to be dragged down can count it as divine blessing, and breaking even is already a miracle. Even when there are spoils to divide, there are traps everywhere. It is as if Britain cannot go a day without stirring up discord. With such a stark contrast, countries that have already benefited by following the Holy Roman Empire have almost no reason to switch sides. This leaves the Netherlands, the Nordic Federation, and Portugal in an awkward position. From a purely interest based perspective, all three have no fundamental conflict with either Britain or Austria. There is no deep grievance or historical hatred, so it seems possible to align with either camp. From a geographical perspective, however, the three countries are in a tragic situation. They are all coastal states and happen to lie along the North Atlantic. This puts them in an awkward position. On land they face the threat of the Holy Roman Empire, and at sea they face the threat of Britain. No matter which side they choose, it feels like a trap. Without a doubt, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the Nordic Federation are the innocent bystanders caught between two great powers preparing to clash. Portugal is in a relatively better situation. Because of its location, it is far from the European mainland, and there are France and Spain between it and the Holy Roman Empire. Even if war breaks out, Portugal will not become a battlefield. As long as they do not act too boldly, they might be able to muddle through. The Nordic Federation is also manageable. It is at least a medium-sized country. If it insists on staying neutral, neither the Holy Roman Empire nor Britain can really deal with it. Cleaning them out would be too difficult, and the cost would far outweigh the gains. No one wants to fight guerrilla warfare in the Swedish mountains, at least not before the main conflict is decided. They may face pressure in the future, but nothing too severe. As long as they behave and keep a low profile, a few years of patience will see them through. The most tragic case is undoubtedly the Netherlands. It lies directly between Britain and the Holy Roman Empire and is close to both. If they support Britain, the Imperial army could march in the very same day. If they support the Holy Roman Empire, the Royal Navy could teach them a harsh lesson within minutes. If the British government is bold enough to attempt a landing operation, the Netherlands would be one of the primary targets. Belgium next door is another possibility, but Belgium has already chosen its side early and is considered a trusted ally. The Austrian government would certainly protect it. Apart from anything else, Belgium has so many military airfields that it is worth the Holy Roman Empire’s investment. To bomb the British Isles, taking off from there is ideal. It is practically a forward base. In theory, launching a counteroffensive from France is also a viable option, making use of the long standing hatred between France and Austria. Unfortunately, this approach does not suit the British. Britain and France are also bitter rivals, and public support for such cooperation would be poor. Moreover, pushing all the way from France into the Holy Roman Empire is simply too far. This would remove any possibility of a surprise attack and force Britain into a straightforward war of attrition. The gap between the two armies was simply too large. As long as the British government had even the slightest bit of common sense, it would never be foolish enough to think about fighting the Holy Roman Empire in a decisive land battle. Even if they stubbornly insisted on launching a landing operation, it would serve more as political propaganda than meaningful military action. It would be enough to put on a show, claim they were counterattacking, and give the domestic audience an explanation. In the original timeline, this happened for real in both world wars. For political needs, the British launched multiple suicidal offensives. They accomplished nothing of value, but they certainly managed to drag their allies down. Franz understood the Netherlands’ dilemma completely, but politics is not about conscience. The pressure that needed to be applied still had to be applied without exception. When great powers collide, no one can stay above it all. Not even the Dutch, and not even Franz himself. As global tensions continued to rise, the semi-retired Emperor Franz had no choice but to appear in public from time to time to boost everyone’s confidence. There was no helping it, because the navy was the protagonist this time. Just as the British wanted to lure the Holy Roman Empire’s navy out, Franz was hoping to draw the British fleet in, achieving final victory through combined sea and air operations. Unfortunately, neither side was easy to fool. Even when the Austrian government invited them under the pretext of naval exchanges, the British only sent a few outdated battleships to make an appearance. With such decrepit vessels, forget staking the government’s credibility on a surprise attack. Even if the war had already started, Franz would not bother to look at them. Everyone was clever and everyone was cautious. Trying to win with a clever trick was simply not feasible. As the challenger, the Holy Roman Empire would eventually need its navy to head out and meet the British in battle if it hoped to win the war. It was not just others who lacked confidence. Franz himself did not fully trust his own navy.
The courage to challenge the British came from his decision from the very beginning to rely on overwhelming numbers. He was taking a page from the Americans in the Second World War. Winning once did not count. Only the side still standing at the end was the true victor. Inside the Palace of Vienna, Franz waved an oversized writing brush and asked, “After we released the signal, how did the international community react?” If one looked closely, it was clearly a traditional ink wash painting. If this had appeared in East Asia, it would not have been surprising, but in Europe it was very unusual. But this was nothing. Perhaps it was age, but Franz had grown increasingly willful. Aside from remaining rational in political matters, he indulged himself completely in daily life. In a world with so few forms of entertainment, picking up an old hobby was not strange at all. As for whether his unusual interests would draw attention, that was no longer something Franz cared about. The only pity was that Franz’s painting skills were not very good. Under his artistic interpretation, a copy of the grand “Hundred Birds Paying Homage to the Phoenix” ended up looking like “Little Chickens Pecking at Rice.” It did not matter. None of the people present could tell the difference between a barnyard chicken and a phoenix anyway. And whether this would distort their aesthetic sense was not something Franz intended to worry about. In truth, Franz only turned to ink painting because he had no other choice. His ability with oil painting was just as poor, and he was too embarrassed to show it in public. So he could only choose something unfamiliar to everyone around him, convenient for showing off without being exposed. In high society, anyone without a hint of artistic talent would easily be looked down on as a provincial bumpkin. As for professional artists pointing out flaws, that was impossible. If he were to send one of his paintings to an auction and stamp it with his imperial seal, it would sell for more than an actual masterpiece. Any artwork that passed the test of the market was, by definition, a true artwork. Anyone who doubted it simply lacked artistic cultivation. Having long grown used to the emperor’s eccentric hobbies, everyone accepted them. They were nothing more than some incomprehensible calligraphy and paintings, hardly even worth mentioning. Foreign Minister Leo stepped forward and said, “Your Majesty, the international reaction has been extremely intense. No country wants us and the British to go to war, including our allies. Ever since the message was released, the Foreign Ministry’s telephones have been ringing nonstop with inquiries. Among them, the Dutch have been the most active. They contacted Belgium, Spain, the Nordic Federation, and more than ten other countries overnight, hoping to begin diplomatic mediation.” A single hint that war might break out was enough to keep all of Europe awake. Franz had indeed set a new record. But thinking about it carefully, it was not surprising at all. If war broke out between the Holy Roman Empire and Britain, every country in Europe would suffer losses without exception. The only difference would be the degree of damage each one had to bear. To begin with, maritime trade would collapse. Once hostilities started, both sides would inevitably enforce mutual blockades. If the Holy Roman Empire wanted to blockade Britain, it would have to rope in the rest of Europe. Otherwise, the blockade would be meaningless. The British were in the same position. Cutting only the overseas trade of the Holy Roman Empire while leaving other European routes untouched would not be a blockade. The two major powers might be able to withstand the disruption, but the smaller countries would be devastated. If the conflict were brief, they could grit their teeth and endure it. If the war dragged on with no clear winner, tragedy would follow. For countries heavily dependent on maritime commerce, the war could directly push them to collapse. Against this backdrop, the intense reactions across Europe were perfectly normal. If they had shown no reaction, that would have been the real problem. Finishing the final strokes of his painting, Franz put down the brush and wiped his hands with a towel. He then said slowly, “Begin formal contact with the other countries. If they wish to mediate, do not stop them. Without experiencing failure, they will not yield easily. Tell them that as long as the British are willing to maintain the status quo, we can sign a peace agreement with them. If necessary, to demonstrate our goodwill and our desire for peace, the Foreign Ministry can even issue a unilateral pledge not to initiate hostilities. It will buy time for our shipbuilding program.” In international affairs, treaties were often nothing more than scraps of paper, and promises were even less meaningful. Over the past decades, the Holy Roman government had kept its word only because the stakes had never been high enough to justify breaking it. But matters of global hegemony operated under entirely different rules. If deceiving the British could create the conditions needed to win the war, then even sacrificing the government’s credibility would be worthwhile. Franz did not hold out any real hope. The British were not fools, and maintaining the status quo certainly did not mean halting their shipbuilding. With only the current batch of warships entering service, the Royal Navy could still barely hold the line and avoid losing control. But if they were to simply say they were adhering to following the precedent and building over a dozen dreadnoughts every year, the British government would simply go ballistic. There was no doubt Franz was capable of doing exactly that. At this crossroads, he no longer had any room to back down. The domestic interest groups of all sizes wanted to topple Britain from its position and claim a share of the spoils. It was not something he could simply abandon. Foreign Minister Leo said, “Yes, Your Majesty. I will make the arrangements. I will ensure that the responsibility for starting the war falls on the British.” Although the Holy Roman government had drawn up a detailed war plan, the exact timing of the conflict remained undecided. One point, however, was certain: once the mass-production phase began, the later the war broke out, the better. In this environment, shifting the blame for initiating war onto Britain became possible. All they needed to do was delay. Time was on the Holy Roman Empire’s side. They could afford to stall. However, Britain could not. The prevailing logic was simple: the one who could no longer endure and strike first was the one who started the war. The causes and background could be ignored because ordinary people did not think that deeply. In a normal conflict, it did not matter much who fired the first shot. But this war would be different. A clash between the Holy Roman Empire and Britain would drag half of Europe into the disaster. If innocent bystanders suffered, they needed somewhere to direct their anger. Every global hegemon was destined to be criticized. But if Britain could be made to shoulder the blame, it was far better than letting the Holy Roman Empire attract all the resentment itself.
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