With the outbreak of the war between Japan and Russia, the once unremarkable Xikou Pass Pass became lively again. Caravans came and went every day without pause. There was no need for anyone to organize them. Profit was the strongest driving force, drawing merchant groups from everywhere to gather here. Although the Russians opened their purses to purchase grain, livestock, coal, weapons, ammunition, and other strategic materials, conflicts still emerged because some people always tried to earn more. Once officials and local strongmen joined in, the situation became even more complicated. Merchant groups that lacked strength or political backing were the first to be pushed aside. They were left with three choices. They could be absorbed and follow behind the larger merchant groups to pick up scraps. They could take a desperate gamble and try to overthrow those people to rise on their own. Or they could give up the lucrative Xikou Pass route entirely. Capital is always realistic, and capitalists are the quickest to compromise. Rising to the top through rebellion only exists in novels. In real life, the major merchant groups had already established deep foundations and woven themselves into a vast network. Too many influential figures were sharing the profits, and they would never allow this chain to be broken. To change this situation, the upper structure would have to shift and power would need to be redistributed. Large-scale reshuffles of power might occur once in a hundred years, while smaller reshuffles could happen every few years or decades. So the merchant groups remained the same, and only the leaders changed, always through internal rotation. There was nothing more to say. If you could not win, you joined. Picking up leftovers was still better than starving. As for the third option, abandoning the extremely profitable Xikou Pass trade route was simply impossible to accept. As stated in Das Kapital: “At fifty percent profit, capital becomes reckless. At one hundred percent profit, it tramples on every human law. At over three hundred percent profit, it commits any crime and is willing to risk even the hangman’s rope.” Although the profits from large-volume Xikou Pass trade goods did not reach three hundred percent, it was still very possible to earn one hundred percent with enough effort. Even in the worst case, there was still fifty percent profit. If the profit were not so generous, no one would risk their lives crossing a thousand-li stretch of endless grassland. As the largest merchant group in the north, the Shanxi merchants naturally would not miss such a profitable opportunity. But at this moment, the atmosphere inside the Shanxi Merchant Guild Hall was tense. Those who were familiar with the situation knew that another decision had to be made. To disrupt enemy supply lines and obtain materials for their own logistics, the Shanxi merchants, who dominated the region, had become targets of competition for both Japan and Russia. At first, the Japanese and Russians did not press too hard, so the merchants could still play both sides and earn enormous profits. However, as the war dragged into a stalemate, the two countries used more and more unconventional tactics, and the space for the merchants to maneuver between them became increasingly limited. The Russians were backed by the Holy Roman Empire, and the Japanese had Britain behind them. What had originally been a small struggle between Japan and Russia had now become a four-nation battlefield. An elder in a long gown sighed and said, “The court continues to remain neutral, and the situation grows ever more difficult. Japan and Russia are applying pressure step by step, and behind them stand Britain and Austria. Business will only become harder in the future.” Abandoning the Xikou Pass trade was impossible. Heads could roll and blood could flow, but business must go on. The pressure from Japan meant nothing. Even if the Qing Dynasty issued an outright prohibition, trade would continue all the same. But this only applied to the smaller merchants. Those seated here were different. They belonged to powerful families whose businesses were not confined to one region, nor limited to a single industry. The Xikou Pass trade was highly profitable, but because of the war, it was doomed to be temporary. Continuing to supply the Russians would undoubtedly offend both Britain and Japan, especially Japan. If Japan were defeated, then fine. The Russians, with their crude temperament, would almost certainly be left half-crippled. But if Japan emerged victorious, the situation would change completely. Those who had chosen the wrong side would inevitably face retribution in the future. Of course, the people seated here were no ordinary figures. On their home turf, even the Japanese could do nothing against them. But business conducted within Japan’s sphere of influence would likely become difficult to sustain. After hearing the elder’s words, a middle-aged man smoking a dry pipe slowly stood up. He walked to the doorway, exhaled a cloud of smoke, and said sternly, “Difficult or not, we must continue. If we stop, others will take our place. Once a market is surrendered, reclaiming it becomes nearly impossible. Besides, the Trans-Siberian Railway is about to open. With the Holy Roman Empire backing them, the Russians clearly have better odds.” Across from him, a fat man in his early forties nodded in agreement and added, “Elder Wang, Brother Liu is absolutely right. The Japanese may be shouting loudly now, but it is all bluster. Russia has committed at most one-fifth of its strength to the Far East, and even that is more than Japan can handle. Once the Trans-Siberian Railway opens, Japan’s defeat becomes only a matter of time. If they lose the war, whether they can even keep their homeland is uncertain. How would they ever have the strength to retaliate against us? They may have British support, but Europe is in turmoil. Britain is already struggling to manage its own affairs. How could it possibly step in for Japan?” Just as in the original timeline, before the war ended, no one could imagine that the Russian Empire would actually lose to Japan. Even the financiers supporting the Japanese government had mentally prepared for their investment to be wasted. Their highest expectation was merely that Japan might inflict heavy losses on Russia. What truly helped Japan win the war was not Britain, not the United States, nor even the Japanese Army and Navy. Instead, it was the Russian revolutionaries, who seemed completely unrelated to the conflict. If not for the internal unrest, given the Russian government’s stubborn nature, it would have been strange if the war had not dragged on for several more years. Just look at the Russo-Turkish War. Conflicts lasting eight to ten years were nothing unusual. If the treasury ran dry, they simply waited until new funds were collected, then resumed the fighting. After all, the Russian Far East was an empty land. No matter how devastated it became, the Russian government would never shed a tear. In icy weather, the snow itself became the greatest ally. If the Japanese army dared to advance deep into the frontier, they could forget about retreating intact. Now the situation was even clearer. Franz’s hidden preparations had yet to be unleashed, and the Austrian government was still openly giving strong support to the Russian regime. Britain and Japan had only limited influence inside Russia. Even if they wanted to provoke a revolution, they simply lacked the means to make it happen. As long as the Russian Empire remained stable, the Far Eastern front would stay locked in stalemate until the Trans-Siberian Railway opened. Anyone with common sense expected the Russian government to prevail. Elder Wang waved his hand and explained, “Alright, I was only sighing. No need for all of you to panic. Young people always lack patience. Even if we choose to run the western route, we still have to negotiate the terms first. Carrying supplies for the Russians may be profitable, but it is not a long-term business. The Trans-Siberian Railway is about to open. If we can reach an agreement with the Russians and secure direct commercial access to Europe, the potential profits will far surpass anything we earn by transporting munitions.” A representative of the Zhang family seated on the left disagreed, “President Wang, greater profit brings greater risk. The Russians are not easy to deal with. They have no real sense of credibility. Even if an agreement is signed, they can break it whenever they please. Taking a contract to court means nothing. Once we step onto their territory, we have no voice at all. Over the years, every family seated here has suffered losses in this regard.” What kind of business yields the highest returns? Naturally, one built upon monopoly. The Shanxi merchants rose in the barren north largely because they monopolized all trade with the lands beyond the Great Wall. But with the arrival of the maritime era, their monopolistic grip on trade in Korea and Liaodong was already broken. And the Mongolian grasslands alone could no longer support so many trading guilds. Some Shanxi merchants moved south, while others continued north. Most of the people seated here were leaders of the northern faction. They had poured enormous effort into expanding trade routes leading into the Russian Empire. There had indeed been results, but most of the profits were swallowed by Russian bureaucrats and capitalists. After all their hard work, the merchants themselves were left with only a bit of meager earnings. When effort and reward no longer matched, no one could tolerate it for long. Eventually, they shifted to becoming simple intermediaries. They transported goods from the Qing Dynasty to the border and sold them to Russian traders. Then they purchased Russian specialties from those same traders and brought them back for sale at home. The profits were smaller, but the risks were much lower. They no longer needed to worry about Russian local bullies seizing their cargo halfway through the journey. To ordinary people, earning steady money was perfectly acceptable. But to merchants, any business that failed to maximize profit was a failure. President Wang smiled faintly, “Xingbo, you are still as straightforward as ever. But you are correct. With our strength alone, opening a land trade route to Europe is beyond our ability. But if our strength is insufficient, we can always find partners.” For merchants, being called “straightforward” was hardly a compliment. It was almost a veiled insult. It was clear that the elder was displeased with Zhang Xingbo’s objections, and his tone carried an unmistakable hint of mockery. No one reacted. It was as if nothing had happened at all. Even Zhang Xingbo himself remained silent. Wherever there are people, there are rivalries. The outside world was one vast arena, and within the guild was a smaller one. They stood together because of shared interests, but during normal business competition, none of them ever held back. The accumulation of grudges over the years was not small. The middle-aged Liu spoke, “Elder Wang, Brother Zhang only misspoke. Please be generous and let it pass. But as for this idea of finding a partner, we truly do not understand. We have had partners in the past, yet every collaboration ended poorly. Foreigners have neither honor nor integrity. Russians are the worst of the lot, treating credibility as nothing. Even their own government defaults on debts without hesitation. If we cooperate with them too deeply, we may very well be ruined.” By the early twentieth century, the Russians were already infamous. With the Russian government repeatedly defaulting on its debts, the whole world had grown deeply suspicious of Russian credibility. Everyone present felt this even more strongly, as many had suffered losses in past dealings. When your partner refuses to follow any rules, even the most detailed contract becomes meaningless. President Wang glanced around the room. Seeing that everyone looked unenthusiastic, he decided not to keep them guessing any longer. Without their cooperation, he alone would end up choking on this plan. “I understand all of your concerns. To be honest, I have suffered my share of setbacks over several decades of trading with Russia. Our advantage is that we have contacts and capital back home. Our weakness is that we lack a network of influence within the Russian Empire, and therefore cannot deter the wolves and jackals along the route. Even if we cooperate with Russian nobles and elites, they still treat us like livestock. Once we grow fat, we are slaughtered. They have no credibility whatsoever. In the end, the problem lies in the imbalance of power. We have almost no say in these partnerships. After long reflection, I realized that the key is to choose a partner who is not too dominant. Ideally, someone who can intimidate the wolves and jackals along the way, yet lacks local roots and is forced to rely on us in the actual business.” With that explanation, everyone understood. It was similar to how they normally bribed officials: giving away a small share as protection money, while keeping control of the business in their own hands. At home, this strategy worked because they had their own networks. But in the Russian Empire, it was impossible. Russian bureaucrats were mostly nobles, and the ones who could be bribed had long been taken by others. There was no room left for outsiders like them. The man surnamed Liu shook his head in disappointment and said, “Elder Wang, the theory makes sense. But in practice, we simply cannot find such a partner. Worse, we might even get dragged into political struggles.” His anxiety was understandable. Over the past few decades, his family had invested more heavily than anyone else in opening trade routes with Russia. The Liu Family trading caravans had even traveled from the Far East across Siberia all the way to Central Europe. It sounded impressive, but in reality, they earned almost nothing. Siberian transportation was a nightmare, and the layers of exploitation by Russian officials left them horrified. President Wang remained calm and said, “Rusong, you are right. Under normal circumstances, we really would not be able to find such a partner. But things are different now. The partner has come to us on his own. All of you have met the Austrians over the past few days. Do not be fooled by their appearance as mere arms dealers. Their real background is definitely not simple. I have never seen an arms dealer who sails with warships providing escort. And the one leading them is actually a nobleman, not an ordinary noble either. I sent people to inquire. That Sir Louis is a member of the Holy Roman Empire’s imperial family. He may only be from a distant branch, but he is more than qualified to serve as our guide. His purpose in coming to the Far East is to expand his family’s business, and this arms deal is only something he is doing along the way. As for the reputation of the Habsburgs, I am sure all of you have heard of it. Whether in politics or in economics, anything connected to them is almost always viewed positively. If we can work with them, we can link directly to European trade routes, whether by land or by sea. The only uncertainty is the struggle for supremacy between the Holy Roman Empire and the British Empire, but that is not a major concern. The Royal Navy cannot come ashore. Even if it were to lose the contest for global dominance, the Holy Roman Empire would still remain one of the world’s most powerful nations. Opportunities like this are rare. If they did not need us to transport strategic supplies for the Russians, we probably would not even qualify to approach them.” Not all partnerships are the same. Ordinary cooperation is simple buying and selling, with no personal connection involved. But deeper cooperation is different. It requires considering how resources can complement one another. When facing members of the Holy Roman Imperial family, the resources held by the Shanxi merchants were pitifully small. Even their most valued asset, their connections at home, meant nothing to the other side. After the initial shock passed, everyone quickly understood. This was an opportunity that came once in a lifetime. If they could secure this connection, opening a trade route through Russia would be no problem at all. With the imperial family of the Holy Roman Empire involved, even the Russian nobles would have no choice but to follow the rules. And as long as everything stayed within the boundaries of established rules, no one here felt afraid. The Liu Family representative asked, “Elder Wang, have you already negotiated with Sir Louis?” The old man gave an embarrassed smile and said, “Only initial contact, nothing in depth yet. After all, Sir Louis not only wants us to help transport arms to Russia, he also wants us to help acquire strategic supplies for them. Without all of you participating, my Wang Family alone cannot procure that much material for the Russians. But all of you can rest assured. Sir Louis guaranteed that none of us will suffer losses in pricing. Everything will follow the market prices of the trading region. He will urge the Russians to pay on time. As for any official trouble caused by procuring strategic supplies, they will handle it. They will not leave hidden issues for us.” Profit is always the strongest bond. As long as the payment is sufficient, procuring strategic supplies is not a problem at all. Until now, although everyone had been making trips westward, the goods carried each time were never large in quantity. Beyond fearing bandits, the greater fear was always that the Russians would simply rob them.
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