Sowing discord between Russia and Austria had always been a cornerstone of British policy. Even though it had never produced any real results, the British government still pursued it relentlessly. When it came to patience, few in the world could rival the British. In this era of unprecedented upheaval, the whole of human society had grown restless. To persist with a single foreign policy for decades was something only a rare few could manage. With the rapid progress of science and technology, people’s patience had dwindled, and politics was no exception. In an age that valued short-term gain above all else, remaining steadfast to a long-term national strategy was no easy feat. From that perspective, it was no accident that Britain became the hegemon of the 19th century. As a pioneer of the times, Britain had always practiced pragmatism. In their eyes, it didn’t matter whether it was an open plot or a hidden one—as long as it worked, it was worth doing. Leandro’s methods might have been crude, but they succeeded in stirring up Ambassador Moroz’s resentment toward the Austrian government. Although this resentment wasn’t yet enough to affect international relations, emotions had a way of building up over time. After all, few people could suppress their feelings and remain purely rational, and Ambassador Moroz was certainly not one of them. Filled with frustration, Moroz naturally had nothing good to say in his telegram to Russia. There was no need for exaggeration. The mere title of “Second Roman Empire” was enough to make Nicholas II furious. In those days, Europe’s obsession with Rome went far beyond what later generations could imagine. Nearly every European nation tried to link itself to Rome in one way or another, as if doing so made them more noble. For Nicholas II, Rome was even more significant. After all, the Tsar’s own crown traced its lineage back to the Eastern Roman Empire. The Roman question touched directly upon the legitimacy of his throne. If the Holy Roman Empire, as the heir to Western Rome, was now recognized as the true successor of Rome, then the Russian Empire, which claimed descent from Eastern Rome, would find itself in a very awkward position. Since the issue concerned his crown, Nicholas II was not about to make any compromises. The problem was that only the European press had been calling the Holy Roman Empire the “Second Roman Empire.” The Austrian government itself had never made any official statement on the matter. That put things in an awkward position. It would be ridiculous to lodge a protest with Austria over a newspaper slogan, demanding that they change “Second Roman Empire” to “Second Western Roman Empire.” Doing that would only make Russia a laughingstock. Not only would it fail to solve anything, but it would also expose their own insecurity. After a period of brooding, Nicholas II ultimately did nothing. Still, his determination to free Russia from the Holy Roman Empire’s influence only grew stronger. In the adult world, once cracks begin to form, they only deepen with time. Repairing them becomes almost impossible. The rift between Russia and Austria had not appeared overnight either. It had existed since the reign of Alexander II and had only continued to widen. The only difference was that times had changed. The Austrian government’s need for the alliance was steadily diminishing, and with it, the will to mend relations between the two nations. … Amidst the thunder of saluting cannons, the Central Asian Railway, a line destined to reshape the political balance of Eurasia, was finally opened on June 16, 1899. Anyone with even a basic grasp of international affairs knew what this meant. The railway stretched from Moscow all the way to the Afghan frontier, and its completion would have far-reaching consequences. Once again, the eyes of the world turned toward Britain and Russia. Compared to the strategic rivalry between Britain and Russia, the minor tensions between Russia and Austria now seemed utterly insignificant. After personally attending the inauguration ceremony, Nicholas II’s initial excitement quickly gave way to concern. With the completion of the railway’s main line, anti-British sentiment within the Russian Empire surged. “Marching south to India” became the new topic of the day. But in contrast to the enthusiasm among the public, the upper echelons of the Russian government remained remarkably calm. Ordinary people saw only the wealth India promised, while ignoring the enormous risks. A little provocation was enough to make them lose themselves in fantasy. The government, however, could not afford such recklessness. It had to carefully weigh both the risks and rewards of a southern campaign and conduct a full, sober assessment. … Prime Minister Sergei Witte spoke first, “The opening of the Central Asian Railway is indeed a good thing. It strengthens our control over the region. But the sudden outbreak of war fever across the country is troubling. The British are not weak. We’ve fought them before. Their army, though smaller in number, is no less capable than ours. Britain has been entrenched in India for over a century. Every attempt we made to incite an Indian independence movement has ended in failure, which proves how deeply rooted British rule is there. If they wish, the British can easily arm a million Indians to fight us. We learned that the hard way in our last war against them. True, those colonial troops aren’t particularly strong, but there are simply too many of them. They’re like maggots in a pit, impossible to kill them all. Once we embark on a southern campaign, it will inevitably turn into a long, grinding war. The Empire’s finances are limited, and we cannot afford years of continuous fighting. Considering the current international situation, launching a southward strategy now will only make us vulnerable to others profiting from our exhaustion. If we could seize India outright, perhaps it would be worth the risk. But what if the British, driven to desperation, strike a deal with the Holy Roman Empire and decide to fight us to the end?” Witte’s fears were not unfounded. India was the lifeblood of the British Empire. Britain’s global supremacy depended fundamentally on its control of the subcontinent. Losing India would shrink British power by at least forty percent. It was second in importance only to the British Isles themselves. If pushed too far, the British Empire might truly abandon its global ambitions just to defend India. One only had to look at Austria’s colonial habits to understand this. The Austrians clearly preferred sparsely populated territories. A densely populated place like India would never interest them. As long as the Austrian government had no designs on India, the British would be willing to sacrifice world dominance for its defense. That, in turn, made a compromise between the two empires entirely possible. If Britain and Austria really reached a compromise, it would be a disaster for the Russian Empire. Not only would Russia have dressed another power in richer robes, it would also have placed itself in grave danger. The Russo-Austrian alliance could only guarantee stability on the western front. It did not mean that the Austrian government would automatically back every Russian move. Over the years, Russia and Austria had repeatedly betrayed and used one another. Foreign Minister Mikhailovich said, “The Prime Minister is right. Given the current international situation, now is not the time to launch a southern campaign. The Central Asian Railway’s main line may be open, but the branch lines are only just beginning construction. Austria has finished its aid program for the project. The remaining work will be up to us to complete. One trunk line cannot possibly support the logistics of a large army moving south. Acting rashly would be pointless and would waste precious national strength. What worries me most is that the British do not trust us. Since news of the railway’s opening broke, the British has repeatedly reinforced its forces in Afghanistan. There are now over five hundred thousand British troops stationed along the border. Although many of those units are colonial levies, the pressure they place on our front is still significant. If the British decide to pick a fight while we are still building branch lines, the Empire would be put on the back foot.” Distrust was inevitable. Experience had taught everyone that living next to the Russian Bear meant staying constantly alert or suffering a grave loss. The Anglo-Russian rivalry had not begun yesterday. Ever since the first Near East War, the Crimean War, relations between the two powers had never really warmed. … The civilian faction opposed the southern strategy. Minister of War Yevgeny looked very unhappy about this. He admitted that marching on India carried risks, but he did not believe the danger was as extreme as others claimed. If Britain and Austria could simply reach a deal, the world would be a far simpler place. Once interests are involved, nothing is simple. Global supremacy is not just a title. It brings vast rewards. Financial extraction, preferential trade, influence across the seas—these are the spoils that make states hungry. Such enormous benefits are not something a politician can casually renounce. If giving up were that easy, there would be no scramble for hegemony in the first place. Knowing it was true was one thing, but Yevgeny did not know how to refute it. After all, wordplay had always been the civil officials’ specialty. After hesitating for a while, Yevgeny organized his thoughts and said slowly, “Gentlemen, heading south into India is indeed risky, but the potential rewards are far greater. Competition among the great powers grows fiercer by the day, and the struggle between nations has reached a boiling point. Over the past few decades, many once-powerful countries have already declined in this contest. If we look through the pages of history, we will find that the current situation is unlike any period before it. Continuing to view problems through outdated perspectives will only lead us to suffer heavy losses. At present, the only nations that can truly be called great powers are Britain, the Holy Roman Empire, and ourselves. The number of strong nations continues to shrink, which means the age of multipolar coexistence is coming to an end. If the Empire does not wish to become the next declining power, then strengthening our national power has become our only option. But right now, we are indecisive—sometimes turning west, sometimes turning east—constantly scattering our strength without a clear strategic goal. If this continues, we are bound to suffer for it.” Yevgeny’s words were an open rebuke, and he did not even bother to hide it. It was clear that he was deeply dissatisfied with the Russian government’s recent strategies. “Turning west” naturally referred to the stationing of troops in France. To the outside world, the Russian government’s occupation of France was mainly to extort war reparations. However, that was only the surface. The real reason the government competed to garrison Paris was not just for profit, but also for a deeper strategic goal: to preserve France’s strength and leave the Holy Roman Empire an enemy in Western Europe. But plans could never keep up with change. The government had misjudged the Russian army’s capabilities and ignored the lack of discipline among its soldiers. Because of an unexpected conflict, the Russian government, originally intending to preserve France’s vitality, ended up becoming the vanguard in suppressing it instead. If something was to be done, it had to be done thoroughly. On this point, the Russian government was perfectly clear. Once the plan to support France failed, the government quickly turned toward Austria for its own benefit, becoming the leading force in the suppression of France. You reap what you sow. Although the plan to keep a rival for the Holy Roman Empire failed, the Russian government still gained substantial benefits during the suppression of the French resistance. The very best of France’s talent had already been taken away during the Continental War, but there were still plenty of second-tier skilled people left. The outside world only saw the Russian army conscripting able-bodied men and behaving ruthlessly in France, yet few noticed the doctors, engineers, and skilled workers hidden among those recruits. If it were not for the Russian army fighting so fiercely on the front lines, putting on the appearance of being sworn enemies with the French, it would have been impossible to extract talent from France. After that war, Russia gained not only free labor for railway construction but also the technical specialists needed to push forward national industrialization. Most crucially, the military expenses had been paid in advance by the Austrian government. In this war to suppress France, the Russian government had, in reality, contributed only manpower. From this perspective, the “westward” strategy was undoubtedly a success. Aside from appearances, the Russian Empire had made an enormous profit. If those talents could be put to good use, the blood drained from France would allow Russia’s industrialization to accelerate by at least ten years. In contrast, the “eastward” strategy was far less impressive. The Trans-Siberian Railway was still under construction, and its completion was nowhere in sight. In any country, talented people are always a minority, and the French blood could not be drained forever. Judging from the current situation, the “westward” strategy was about to reach its end. Yevgeny’s meaning was perfectly clear: the western front could no longer be relied upon, and the eastward plan was restricted by transportation delays. In the short term, advancing south was the best option. As for staying still and waiting for the Trans-Siberian Railway to be completed before carrying out the eastern expansion plan, such thoughts were wishful thinking. Not every nation had the patience for that. Even if the Russian government’s upper ranks could wait, the people below certainly could not. There was no helping it, India was simply too rich, and its wealth had already blinded many Russians. Once the subject had been laid bare, the atmosphere among those present grew heavy. Although the Russian Empire did not have a tradition of subordinates defying superiors, it was not uncommon for those below to take matters into their own hands. No one understood better than the men in that room how dire Anglo-Russian relations had become. Especially now, with the Central Asian Railway’s main line open, even the smallest spark along the border could set off a war. … Nicholas II said, “In any case, only the main line of the Central Asian Railway has been opened. Along the route, many areas still require enormous amounts of manpower to transport supplies. If war were to break out before the branch lines are completed, we would have no way to ensure logistics for the front-line troops. The Empire has already suffered too many losses from such mistakes, and we absolutely cannot repeat them. To avoid the worst possible outcome, the Empire must do everything in its power to prevent a conflict with Britain. The army must keep its front-line forces in check since the Empire cannot withstand another upheaval right now.” Unable to find a true solution, Nicholas II decisively adopted a policy of delay. Citing the time needed for the construction of the branch lines, he sought first to placate the pro-war faction in the army. As for when those branch lines would actually be completed, that would depend entirely on how events unfolded.
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