The Moroccan tribes had always hated the Spanish, so once they got their hands on a large cache of weapons and ammunition, what followed was easy to predict. Since the arms dealers were already posing as British merchants, pretending to represent the British government’s support for the Moroccan anti-Spanish movement was just the next logical step. There had already been a precedent with the British backing the Cuban independence movement, so secretly supporting Moroccan resistance against Spain seemed only natural. To the tribal chieftains of Morocco, there was no reason to doubt it. Everything they saw pointed to British involvement, and while words could lie, real guns and bullets never did. This difference in perception patched up the last gap in the con. The chieftains could never have imagined that the weapons and ammunition they saw as priceless treasures were, in another man’s eyes, worth no more than potatoes or wheat. Guns gave the Moroccans courage. As the saying goes, “A man with a gun has nothing to fear.” With weapons in hand, the tribal leaders suddenly gained the confidence to stand up to the Spanish colonizers. Enduring humiliation was no longer an option. After all, they believed the mighty British Empire stood behind them. Just looking at the British warships anchored across the Strait of Gibraltar filled them with unshakable confidence. Driven by hatred and greed, the tribes launched violent attacks on Spanish settlers throughout Morocco. Getting ambushed was considered lucky, and those who survived counted their blessings because most victims ended up meeting their maker. Fortunately, Morocco no longer had any cannibal tribes, or else some of the dead might have ended up on a grill. When chaos breaks out among the people, the government always takes the blame. The decaying Moroccan regime could neither control its tribes nor afford to offend the great powers. Even in the original timeline, Spain fought the Moroccan tribes several times while the Moroccan government turned a blind eye. Now the corrupt Moroccan Sultan fretted over the unrest, while the Spanish government, already trapped in endless troubles, was in no better shape. On one hand, it had to protect the lives and property of its citizens abroad. On the other, Spain was far too exhausted to open yet another front. Its tough diplomatic stance was little more than an empty show. The tribes were unmoved, and scaring the Moroccan government alone was pointless. … Madrid, Cabinet Meeting Room From the moment Prime Minister Antonio stepped into the chamber, he kept tapping his fingers on the table, as if lost in deep thought that had no end. “Everyone’s here, so let’s begin. I believe you’ve all heard the news. What we feared the most has finally happened. After the uprisings in the Philippines and Cuba, now the situation in Morocco is becoming unstable as well. The local tribes hostile to us have received support from the British and are now causing trouble. Our task today is to decide what measures we should take to safeguard the interests of the Empire.” Whether or not the British were truly backing the Moroccans no longer mattered. Politically, they had to be the ones behind it. At this point, whether the Spanish government liked it or not, it had to stand in opposition to Britain. The funding from the Austrian government did not come without strings attached. If Spain failed to take a clear stance, it would not just be Morocco falling into chaos but Spain itself. Unlike the British which were disliked and separated by the sea, the Holy Roman Empire’s influence on the European continent was far more formidable. If the Holy Roman government were to withdraw its support for Spain and turn to back the revolutionaries instead, Spain would not only lose its colonies but also plunge into turmoil at home. Of course, as the bastion of conservatism, the Austrian government would never openly support the revolutionaries. But did the Spanish government know that for certain? Politics was unpredictable. It was full of stories where nations shouted threats in public while quietly lending aid in secret. Relations between Britain and Spain had always been poor. Recently, the British had nearly crippled Spain over colonial disputes. So why not take the path to the end and turn outright against them? Of course, Spain’s “anti-British” stance would only go as far as issuing a few fiery political statements to make its position clear. The real work of opposing Britain would still fall on the Holy Roman Empire. If Britain truly began to decline, Antonio would have no problem stepping in to kick them while they were down. Otherwise, it was better to leave a way out. “Military action is clearly out of the question. The war in the Philippines isn’t over yet, and suppressing the Cuban rebellion has reached a critical point. The army can’t take on more, and neither can the treasury,” said Finance Minister Siegfried with a heavy tone. He wasn’t trying to make excuses for the military as there simply wasn’t enough money. Although the Foreign Minister had recently returned from a trip abroad with two large loans, more than expected, even that would not last long in the face of the military’s endless appetite for money. All eyes turned toward the Foreign Minister, Júnior, who frowned deeply, his good mood evaporating. “Don’t get your hopes up. The Sultan of Morocco only has nominal control over the tribes. Even if we reach an agreement with their government, it won’t restrain the tribes below. We can’t seriously expect to negotiate with every primitive tribe ourselves, can we? There are thousands of tribes in Morocco, more than we have diplomats.” Deep down, Júnior was already grumbling to himself. Did they really think the Foreign Ministry could solve everything? They all knew the situation in Morocco was chaotic and that someone was pulling strings behind the scenes, yet they still expected diplomacy to fix it. That was nothing short of wishful thinking. The Minister of Colonies, Marquis Taboada, spoke coldly, “If military action is out of the question and diplomacy cannot achieve results, then what are we supposed to do? Sit back and do nothing? Those uncivilized tribes have no concept of international rules. If the government doesn’t act soon to suppress their arrogance, these attacks will not remain isolated incidents. Spain’s dignity has already been trampled into the ground. If we continue to do nothing, we all know exactly what will happen next.” In truth, this was not the first or even the second time Spain had clashed with the Moroccan tribes. The Spanish government had sent troops multiple times to deal with similar crises, but the results had always been disappointing. In the original timeline, Spain fought with the Moroccans all the way until 1926, and only after joining forces with the French did they finally manage to divide and occupy northern Morocco. Although Spain in that timeline lost its richest colonies in the Spanish–American War and suffered a devastating blow to its national strength, the Spain of today was not in much better shape. Aside from reclaiming Roussillon, which only helped save face, there was little real improvement. Cuba and the Philippines remained under Spanish control, but both were now rising in rebellion. Instead of providing revenue, these colonies had become a constant drain on Spain’s already strained resources. It was a dilemma that would trouble any government. For one as inefficient as Spain’s, it was even worse. Meetings were held day after day, yet no viable solution ever emerged. … London As the global situation continued to deteriorate, John Bull, the undisputed hegemon of this era, had no intention of sitting idle. The Austrian government’s diplomatic encirclement of Britain had become an open secret. Because of geography, the British government had no effective way to compete with the Holy Roman Empire on the European continent. Everyone could see that if things continued on this trajectory, time itself would work against Britain. The longer it dragged on, the worse it would get. Yet rushing into confrontation was even worse. The Holy Roman Empire might be Britain’s greatest rival, but the two powers were built on completely different foundations. One focused on land power, supported by naval strength as a complement. The other relied entirely on sea power, having all but abandoned ambitions on land. If they revealed their hands now, neither side could destroy the other outright. But in a drawn-out contest of attrition, Britain risked being slowly strangled. With its small population, lagging industry, and lack of reliable allies, the British government simply could not afford to take that gamble. As long as they didn’t tear the mask off completely, Britain’s hegemony could still hold for a while. But once things turned open and hostile, that dominance might collapse overnight. A rational government would never gamble the nation’s fate on a reckless all-in bet. Going all out on the poker table was for barefoot gamblers, not for players already wearing shoes. As an old-school empire, Britain’s greatest strength had always been in playing the spoiler. Yet the current situation in Europe had limited its ability to stir the pot. Still, these difficulties did not intimidate the British. If there were no favorable conditions, they would simply create them. Striking at Spain was only the first step. On the surface, Britain gained little from it, but it did manage to weaken the Holy Roman Empire by cutting off one of its supporting arms. The only mistake was overestimating Spain’s strength and misjudging how important Spain truly was to the Holy Roman Empire. In the end, that was just Spain’s misfortune. Britain had no intention of facing three great powers alone, so it had to find a way to divide Russia and Spain from the Empire. The Russo-Austrian Alliance was too solid to break, so Spain became the sacrificial pawn. The plan to drive a wedge between Austria and Spain succeeded, but Spain was left in ruins, and the two nations now harbored deep resentment toward each other. Old grudges mixed with new ones, and Anglo-Spanish relations were completely destroyed. Fortunately for Britain, Spain had already declined and lacked the power to retaliate otherwise the British government might have found itself in serious trouble. The path had been full of twists, but the outcome mattered more than the process. Even if Britain gained little tangible benefit, pulling Spain down from its pedestal still counted as a political victory. They had crushed a potential “Austro-Russo-Spanish anti-British alliance.” That’s right—Spain was brought down simply because of a potential threat. This was how cruel the competition among the great powers had become. The mere hint of danger was reason enough to strike first. At 10 Downing Street, the British Cabinet convened once again. Prime Minister Robert Cecil began, “The Russo-Austrian Alliance has lasted nearly half a century. If we trace it back further, its roots stretch into the last century. After such a long partnership, their national interests have become deeply intertwined. With conventional means, it will be difficult for us to drive them apart. But this alliance poses a tremendous threat to us. If they ever turn hostile, Britain will face two great powers at once. The Russians would march south toward India, while the Holy Roman Empire would push out through the Mediterranean. Europe, Asia, Africa, and even the New World could all become battlefields. The Empire cannot possibly handle so many fronts at the same time. The time has come to test us. If Britain’s hegemony is to endure, we must break the Russo-Austrian Alliance. At the very least, when a conflict does occur, we must ensure that one of them remains neutral. The Empire cannot afford to face both at once. Our time is running short. The Central Asian railway that the Austrian government is helping the Russians build is already one-third complete. There is a very real chance it will be operational before the year 1900.” Mentioning only the Russo-Austrian alliance and not the European Alliance was not an oversight by Robert Cecil. The reason was simple. The Russo-Austrian pact was deeply rooted, while the European Alliance was a makeshift grouping. Although the Continental Alliance had played an important role in managing the last economic crisis and intervening in the Philippine campaign, which did strengthen internal cohesion, a makeshift coalition remained a makeshift coalition. Sorting out old grudges and rivalries within it was not something that could be done overnight. Having the European states cheer and act as a political shield was one thing. Asking them to send troops to fight Britain was another. Austria’s prestige did not carry that kind of weight. More importantly, the problem was strength. With Spain disabled, the European Alliance was left with only two major powers, Russia and Austria. Even if smaller states were willing to join a great power struggle, they lacked the capability to make a real difference. Even if the Holy Roman Empire tried to drag those small states into a war, one should not expect fence-sitters to actually fight. The European Alliance existed more for political symbolism than military substance. By contrast, the Russo-Austrian alliance was the real force Britain had to reckon with. If the Russians took India and the Holy Roman Empire seized Britain’s remaining colonies and maritime hegemony, the division of spoils would be plain to see. Foreign Secretary Cameron said, “We have tried to drive a wedge between Russia and Austria, but everyone knows how that turned out. Each attempt was in vain. The Russian bureaucracy is already corrupted by vested interests. The Russo-Austrian alliance is tied up with their personal gains. Anyone who tries to cut off their source of money will face fierce retaliation. As for the Austrian government, do not even mention it. Their internal stability is terrifying, and they are ruled by one of the most respected emperors in the history of the Habsburgs. The real point is that after the Russian government shifted its strategy southward, there is no core conflict of interest between Russia and Austria. No matter how we try to drive them apart, the Russians’ primary strategic objective remains India, while the Holy Roman Empire’s aim is global hegemony. By blocking both of them, we have become their common enemy.” A common enemy and shared interests make the closest of allies. That simple truth could not be overturned. Expecting the Foreign Office to break the Russo-Austrian alliance was asking too much. “Then let us redirect the trouble eastward,” suggested Chancellor of the Exchequer Aquinas. “Russia’s strategic choices are not limited to India. To the east there is land as rich as India. Inside the Russian government there is a so-called Greater Russia strategy. The only problem has been transportation. If the Austrians can help the Russians build a Central Asian railway, we can help them build a Siberian railway. With the greed inside the Russian administration, they will not abandon ambitions in the East. No one wants to be a miserable second if they can be the first. Russia understands that once the Holy Roman Empire secures hegemony, the era of secret cooperation between the two will end. If the Holy Roman Empire achieves hegemony, even if Russia takes India, the relative strength between the two nations will not shrink. It will grow further in favor of the Empire. Now we can offer them a new choice, an opportunity to surpass the Holy Roman Empire. The Russian government would have no reason to refuse.” In the art of digging pits and laying traps, Britain was a master. The saying applied perfectly: better that a rival perish in the trap than that one’s own plans fail.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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