The chaos in Paris was still ongoing, and while the outcome remained uncertain, Franz had already begun to worry about the choice of the next King of France. The candidate would certainly come from one of the three great royal houses, of that there was no doubt. Anyone outside of them would simply lack the authority to stabilize the situation. The first to be eliminated was naturally House Bonaparte. Although they had the most supporters within the army, Napoleon IV was the leader of the French resistance movement. That alone made his candidacy impossible. It turned out that shifting blame was not an easy art, and political slogans were not something one could shout without consequence. By raising the banner of “punish the traitors at home, defend sovereignty abroad,” Napoleon IV had tied himself firmly to the cause of resistance. To compromise now was impossible. Even if Napoleon IV himself were willing to change course, the Anti-French Coalition would never agree. Although the House of Bonaparte had not ruled France for long, aside from the short-lived Napoleon II, every emperor from their lineage had been a formidable and restless figure. The lessons of history were still vivid, and no one wanted another Franco-European war. Against this backdrop, the unstable House Bonaparte was naturally the first to be ruled out. Eliminating one-third of the pool did not make the choice any easier. In theory, the Bourbon and Orléans dynasties were nearly the same. In practice, however, Franz had no choice but to support the legitimate Bourbon line, at least publicly, since his own position required it. Had France been calm and stable, it would have been enough to put some figurehead on the throne to maintain appearances. Franz would not have needed to rack his brains at all. But under present circumstances, the French throne was nothing less than a searing hot potato. An ordinary man could never hope to hold it. The future monarch might not need to be a visionary, but at the very least he had to be a master of internal struggle. History offered Franz no guidance here. Neither of the two royal families seemed to have anyone truly capable. Having been reduced to exile, their traditions of rulership and imperial training had likely been severed. Unless someone with extraordinary natural talent had somehow trained himself, none of them would be able to manage. Setting aside questions of birth, in Franz’s view the most suitable choice was still Napoleon IV. He may have been a loser on the battlefield, but his talent for internal struggle was undeniable. From seizing power upon coming of age, to suppressing domestic revolts, to cracking down on vested interest groups, and finally managing to shed responsibility at the last moment before military defeat, this entire sequence of maneuvers was enough to prove Napoleon IV’s personal ability. Had their roles been reversed, Franz did not believe he could have done any better. The special circumstances of France left Napoleon IV no chance to build prestige through traditional means. All of his political survival had to rely entirely on intrigue and calculation. The pity was that the most capable man was also the least suitable for the throne. Europe was a world governed by legitimacy, and although the Bourbon and Orléans dynasties appeared to have many members, only a handful truly held the right to inherit the crown. To find a “qualified monarch” from among so few candidates was a nearly hopeless prospect. If we were to turn back the clock twenty years, Franz could have still backed Henri V of the Bourbon dynasty. That's right, the man who gave up the throne over a piece of “rag.” (TN: He insisted that he would accept the crown only on condition that France abandon its tricolour flag (associated with the French Revolution) and return to the use of the fleur de lys flag, comprising the historic royal arms of France.) Say what one will, he was at least intelligent. With a single simple trial, he had seen clearly that the throne was nothing but a burning coal and decisively chose to abandon it. Unfortunately, that clever man had already gone to meet God. Worse still, he left behind no descendants, and the closest Bourbon bloodline now lay in the Spanish royal family. That did not automatically give Spain a chance. When the Spanish monarchy was restored, in order to gain French support, they had struck a bargain with Napoleon III and formally renounced all claims to the French throne. The French legitimists argued that such a renunciation, made under pressure from the Bonaparte dynasty, carried no legal force. Other political factions, however, did not agree. In the original course of history, when the political situation was dire, the Bourbons and the Orléans both rushed to push for restoration. The two factions compromised and together supported Henry V. But matters were different now. Anyone with a clear head could see that without the support of the continental alliance, the noisy revolutionaries would eventually be doomed. The Bonaparte line had already been eliminated early, leaving only the two traditional houses to struggle over the prize. The Orléans faction insisted that the Spanish royals had forfeited their rights, and that the remaining Bourbon heirs were all distant cousins. Their solution was to enthrone the Count of Paris, Philippe of Orléans. The very question of who held legitimate claim to the French crown was enough to leave the French themselves confused, and Franz even more so. The problem was stark. There was no obvious candidate based on merit, nor was there a clear candidate with overwhelming support. “Have the Foreign Ministry pressure the French to reach a compromise quickly. The royalists must put forward a king soon. Otherwise, once the revolutionaries grow too strong, they will be the ones crying.” Since no choice could be made, they simply decided to let the French play freely. At this point, things could hardly get any worse. Foreign Minister Wessenberg explained, “Your Majesty, the rise of the revolutionaries is unlikely to scare them. The royalists have long been prepared. At present, the nobles’ private armies within Paris number no less than ten thousand. Added to that, they control the military, so even if all the republican forces were to unite, they would still be no match. Not to mention that the revolutionaries are still caught in internal strife.” The real reason the royalists were so strong was that the French people were not yet ready to accept a republic. The main cause, of course, was that there was no such thing as the worst, only something worse. Given the miserable performance of the French revolutionary government, even if every Frenchman had once supported the republic, by now they would have turned into royalist sympathizers. “The country is not mine. Once I have grabbed enough money, I will walk away. After me, let the flood come.” In less than a year in power, the revolutionary government had already completed the transformation from revolutionaries to bureaucrats. The worse the situation became, the more desperately the bureaucrats looted, because they knew that if they did not seize the chance now, they would never have another. The second revolution launched by the more farsighted republicans was in truth an act of desperation. The French revolutionary government had rotted through, the royalists could restore the monarchy at any time, and reform from within was already impossible. They had no choice but to tear it all down and rebuild. Thinking of the royalists’ performance, Franz could only feel exhausted. They were nothing more than a band of foolish allies. Did they really believe that being the King of France was so easy, that anyone could handle it? Outside, millions of refugees were still crying out for food, the domestic economy was collapsing, and the whole of France was a powder keg that could explode with the smallest spark. If it were not for the anti-French coalition detaining a large number of prisoners of war, the smoke of civil war would likely have risen long ago. And yet, in such a crisis, so many people still had the heart to quarrel endlessly over the matter of succession. “Hmph!” With a cold snort, Franz said harshly, “Tell them that no matter what, they must establish a successor within the year, otherwise they can prepare to starve!” If it had been directed at someone else, Franz would never have played it this way. To threaten people with food was to push them toward self-sufficiency or to force them to find a new supplier, no matter how costly it might be. But France was different. If not for the war, they would already have had enough food. Even with reduced territory, feeding the current population would not be a problem. This meant that France was only a short-term customer. Whether their food security was threatened or not, in the future they would be self-sufficient, so offending them carried little risk. If the royalists did not know their place, then he could provoke a French civil war, let them fight until the sky grew dark and the earth trembled, and then step in to clean up the mess. … It was not only Austria watching the French situation, but all the countries of Europe were paying close attention to Paris. The fact that the coalition army had not immediately intervened was already a great surprise. Though few believed that the French could turn things around at this moment, if the French revolutionary government were to fall and the new government refused to honor the treaty, yet another storm would follow. London, Downing Street. Unlike before, this time with the turmoil in Paris, the British government appeared unusually indifferent, as if it had nothing to do with them. In truth, that was exactly the case. Even if the British government wanted to intervene, they did not know whom they should support, nor whom they could support. To put it bluntly, even if they were willing to help, the French would not dare accept it. With coalition troops encamped outside Paris, anyone who sought support from the British would be the first to be destroyed. Inability to intervene did not mean a lack of preparation. The exiled government led by Napoleon IV was now the greatest piece in Britain’s hand. The only problem was that this piece was a little too clever. Simple deception would never work. After all, Napoleon IV had already succeeded in restoration once before. He had crushed a revolution in the past. If not for the fact that the coalition had not fully withdrawn, he would have already marched back. That group of revolutionaries alone could never have stopped him. Prime Minister Gladstone said, “The Bonaparte dynasty shows no signs of moving. Napoleon IV has more patience than we imagined. Everything now depends on whether the revolutionaries can prove themselves. If this second revolution succeeds and they manage to cripple the royalists at home, then we still have a chance.” The anti-French coalition disliked the Bonaparte dynasty, but they hated the republican government even more. If the situation became completely unmanageable and the Bonapartes restored their rule, then everyone would just have to hold their noses and accept it. That was exactly how Napoleon III had returned to power. If the Bonaparte dynasty came back, Britain would once again have its stake planted on the European continent. It might not matter in the short term, but the competition between nations was never about a year or two. It was about decades, even centuries. “Prime Minister, I believe this matter should be set aside for now. Austria is pressuring the royalists to reach a compromise and confirm their king as soon as possible. Though the French royalists are split into three factions, when faced with the republicans their interests are still the same. Once Austria brokers a deal, the Bonapartes will lose all opportunity. In such circumstances, it would be unwise for us to act too early. If we make the wrong move, already fragile relations between Britain and France will become impossible to mend.” George was not exaggerating. France was the one country on the continent most likely to oppose Austria, perhaps even the only one. As for the rest, setting aside questions of strength, they simply lacked the motive. With no deep hatred and no pressing conflict of interest, who would risk everything to challenge the hegemon? Repairing relations with France was practically the first step, and the most important step, for Britain to return to the European stage. If they chose the wrong side in the succession struggle, they could forget about making that step for decades. “It is indeed not the time to interfere openly. But just because we cannot act in the light does not mean we cannot act in the shadows. There are plenty in France who resent Austria. Send people to contact them in secret. Choose a few and invest in them, nothing more than a casual move. As long as the seeds of resentment continue to grow, they will one day take root and bear fruit. At the right moment, they may well play a decisive role.” Deep down, Gladstone did not enjoy such scheming, but there was no helping it. Britain had to protect itself. The Holy Roman Empire was at its peak, and the sun no longer shone as brightly on the British Empire. Without careful planning, it would not be long before the sun truly set. This might be a problem for the next prime minister, or the one after that, or even the one after that. But as a responsible prime minister, Gladstone intended to extend Britain’s supremacy for as long as possible.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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