Looking around, Itō Hirobumi braced himself and replied, “Your Majesty, this war in Europe is unlike anything we’ve seen before. On the surface, it appears to be France expanding its influence in Europe, provoking Austria into war. But at its core, it’s a struggle for dominance over the continent. Britain and Russia are tied up with the Afghan War and cannot intervene in Europe in the short term. This has given France and Austria the chance to try and defeat their rivals. So far, seven European countries—France, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Montenegro, and Armenia—have been drawn into the conflict. Although the remaining nations are still watching from the sidelines, it’s not impossible that more may be pulled in. France is powerful, but it’s fighting alone. If the war drags on and more European countries become involved, even a tiger will struggle against a pack of wolves. According to intelligence from Europe, the French have already mobilized five million troops, while the anti-French coalition has raised seven million. Once you include clashes between French and Austrian colonial forces, that number will grow even larger. A war involving over ten million soldiers is far beyond what we can hope to involve ourselves in. In my view, any southward strategy before the war in Europe is settled would be unwise.” He wasn’t wrong. Politically speaking, any country that declares war, even if only to make up the numbers, still counts. Greece, Montenegro, and Armenia may be small fry cheering from the sidelines, but they are still members of the anti-French alliance. They’ve also made important contributions to the anti-French cause. While they may not have done much militarily, their political support has been significant. Ordinary people might not notice, but politicians understand this clearly. Austria was able to portray this European war as a fight against French aggression thanks in large part to these minor allies lending their voices to the cause. France has long been unpopular in Europe. After all, Napoleon humiliated most of the continent during his reign. If the Bonaparte dynasty weren’t being shunned, that would be the real surprise. But being opposed by half of Europe, with even neutral countries dragging their feet, looks to Itō Hirobumi like a complete diplomatic failure for France. Judging by past experience, when France acts too arrogantly, it always gets punished. No one knows which country might join the war next. From a political and diplomatic standpoint, Itō Hirobumi saw little chance of a French victory. But just because he doubted France didn’t mean Japan could afford to place its bets. A massive brawl involving tens of millions of troops is something new not just for Japan, but for all of human history. Even with the early successes of the Meiji Restoration, Japan remains a small, agrarian nation. Its military capabilities, although improved, still lag far behind those of the top global powers. With only a hundred thousand newly formed troops in the country, their combat strength was not even on par with Belgium. The future continental army that would sweep across East Asia was still in its infancy. The gap in land forces was vast, and the same was true for the navy. Against naval powers like Britain, France, and Austria, just two pre-dreadnought battleships could wipe out the entire Japanese fleet. Those countries had such capital ships in double digits. “Continental warfare is too expansive for us to participate in. However, attacking the Philippines is not difficult. Spain has long declined and no longer has the right to possess fertile colonies. Britain, Russia, Austria, and France are all embroiled in war, leaving them no time to bother with Far Eastern affairs. This is our best opportunity to strike. Spain may still carry the title of a great power, but in the latest wave of military revolutions, they have completely fallen behind. According to intelligence gathered by the navy, most of the Spanish fleet stationed in the Philippines consists of sailing warships. The only two ironclads are relics from over a decade ago. The navy is confident they can be taken out with ease. The Suez Canal is now blocked. As long as we eliminate the Spanish fleet in the Philippines, even if they send reinforcements once they receive word, the earliest they can arrive is six months from now. If the army can take the Philippine Islands within half a year, the Spaniards without a foothold will be nothing more than a toothless tiger, not worth worrying about.” Navy Minister Saigō Tsugumichi spoke casually, as if having no say in the continental war was completely natural and not the least bit frustrating. The long-standing rivalry between Japan’s army and navy could be traced back for centuries. The historical feud between the Chōshū (Mori) and Satsuma (Shimazu) domains has carried over to the present. In the face of the navy’s contempt, Minister of War Yamagata Aritomo fired back, unwilling to be outdone: “If your navy can take care of the enemy fleet, our army will occupy the Philippine Islands within six months. The real fear is that you won’t be able to finish the fight quickly, dragging things out with the Spanish navy and wasting precious time.” The navy and army had not yet come to blows, but for the Orthodox faction of the Rikken Seiyukai led by Itō Hirobumi, this was already the worst possible development. Regardless of how fierce the north-south debate within Japan’s military might become in later years, for now the strategic differences between both sides were, in essence, minimal. Before securing Korea as a springboard, whether advancing south or north, Japan’s main force had to be the navy. This was a consensus shared by everyone. On the surface, the current Japanese navy still did not appear to be a match for the Beiyang Fleet, at least in terms of ship tonnage. Japan’s rulers, not yet intoxicated by victory, remained extremely cautious. Not only did they avoid getting involved in the European war, but they also held deep respect and fear for their neighbors. To ensure victory in war, under the pressure of shared interests, a brief alliance between the army and navy was only natural. Japan’s resources were still limited, and one defeat could mean their end. Just as the military seemed close to reaching an agreement, Minister of Finance Ōkuma Shigenobu hurriedly objected, “No, Spain is a European country. Launching an attack on a white nation without warning could provoke retaliation from the European powers. If other powers intervene, even if we occupy the Philippine Islands, we might end up having to give them back. We might even face Spanish retaliation. Don’t be fooled by Spain’s decline. Their overall strength is still greater than ours. Our only advantage is that the Philippines are far from their homeland. But if they receive European support, the situation will be entirely different. They could easily assemble a massive fleet to cause us trouble.” This was true. Japan’s naval warships were all purchased from Europe. For Spain, located on the European continent, acquiring warships would be even easier. Moreover, Spain’s shipbuilding capacity was not weak. Ranked just below Britain, France, and Austria, it was still in the second tier globally. Japan, which had only just started building ships, simply could not compete. In truth, Ōkuma still had words he left unsaid. The most influential naval theory of the time was Britain’s “Hundred Years’ Navy,” which shaped naval strategy across many countries. No matter how much Spain’s navy had declined, they had once been powerful. Their inherited tactics and experience were things the newborn Japanese navy simply could not match. On the surface, Japan’s navy was far superior to the Spanish fleet stationed in the Philippines. But if real fighting broke out, whether Japan could take them down swiftly remained uncertain. If the Spanish managed to drag things out, stalling for time while waiting for reinforcements from the mainland, it would turn into a major problem. Navy Minister Saigō Tsugumichi analyzed the situation, “Ōkuma-kun, your concern about foreign intervention is completely unnecessary. Spain and Britain have longstanding grudges. Over the years, the British have consistently suppressed Spain’s development, so there’s no way they would support them. Originally, Spain was aligned with the French. Even Alfonso XII was propped up by the French, but recently there’s been a shift in Spanish domestic power. The pro-Austrian faction has taken control and broken away from France. If that were all, it wouldn’t be such a big deal. It would simply mean switching allies. But unfortunately, while Spain aligned itself with Austria, it didn’t fully commit, instead playing both sides. Logically speaking, this European war should be Spain’s golden opportunity. If they attacked France from behind, the anti-French coalition could win immediately. With Britain and Russia standing by, Austria would still need a strong ally to dominate continental Europe. There’s no way they would abandon Spain, and together they could share the spoils of victory. Despite this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, Spain held back. If they’re not willing to seize it, they shouldn’t expect Austria to help them wholeheartedly. If we strike now, we might even win France’s support. We could use the excuse of clearing obstacles on their path south and then work with them to invade Austrian Southeast Asia. The French government has no options left. They’re fighting alone in continental Europe, and their only ally, Britain, is still locked in a war with Russia. If it weren’t for desperation, they wouldn’t have turned to us in the first place.” Picking allies isn’t done carelessly. This was an era obsessed with hierarchy and national pride. Normally, European nations wouldn’t ally with an Asian country because it would be seen as deeply embarrassing. From the moment France tried to pull Japan into its camp, it had already lost face. This was one of the reasons Japan’s leadership didn’t believe France could win the war. It came down to cultural differences. In Europe, face mattered but not as much as tangible benefits. In the East, face often outweighed profit. Viewing the world through their own lens, Japan’s leaders assumed that France was on its last legs, turning to any potential ally out of desperation. Had Austria not completely ignored them, not even offering negotiations, some within Japan’s government might have advocated joining the anti-French coalition and seizing French Indochina. Itō Hirobumi sternly rebuked, “Saigō-kun, this is a terrible idea. If we show any hint of leaning toward the French, we’ll surely provoke hostility from Austria. Even if Austria is tied down by France and unable to intervene directly, that doesn’t mean they can’t trip us up. Don’t forget the Dutch in Southeast Asia. If Austria steps in and encourages the Dutch to take action, we’re in no position to face both Spain and the Netherlands at once.”
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH) Support the translation and read more chapters at https://ko-fi.com/dragonlegion
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