As public hostility toward Belgium and Germany intensified in public discourse, large-scale protests and demonstrations erupted across the country. From Paris to Rome, every French city with a population over fifty thousand saw protests. All sorts of slogans rang out endlessly, ranging from opposition to coal profiteering and unemployment, to demands for higher wages and broader voting rights. Relevant or not, countless social groups joined in. For a time, the voice of the French public resounded throughout Europe. However, this voice was chaotic and hard to make sense of. At the Palace of Versailles, hearing the heart-wrenching cries of the people outside, Napoleon IV grew furious. Public opinion? In an age without the internet, without manipulation, it would take three to five months for news to spread across the country on its own. Nationwide simultaneous demonstrations would be impossible without coordination. “Have the Ministry of Police investigate who is stirring up trouble behind the scenes!” No emperor is willing to be manipulated, and Napoleon IV was no exception. Even if the Central European Strategy was to be implemented, it must happen under his leadership, not because someone forced him into it. Minister of Police Adonis answered nervously, “Your Majesty, many groups participated in this unrest. There are capitalists, students, nobles, the military, and even government officials. According to the intelligence we have gathered, the industrial and commercial sectors acted first, then it spread rapidly.” As for who the real mastermind was, the Ministry of Police did not know. But surface-level information like this was at least traceable. Adonis had sharp political instincts. From the moment the unrest began, he had been working on countermeasures and was now ready to act. In France, the law does not punish the majority. This is a national trait. Even Napoleon IV couldn’t punish all the participants of the last revolution, let alone this one. Knowing it was the industrial and commercial sector was not helpful. Without identifying the ringleader, Napoleon IV had no one to hold accountable. Slamming the table, Napoleon IV said viciously, “Damn the consortiums. Don’t think you can just get away with this!” Since the business sector took the lead, the influence of financial groups was undoubtedly involved. Blaming the consortiums was entirely reasonable. In fact, the relationship between the House of Bonaparte and France’s financial groups had never been good. Conflicts of interest often arose between the two sides. During the Paris Revolution, the financial sector’s opportunism and behind-the-scenes manipulation further worsened their relationship. Although Napoleon IV had made compromises, his resentment only grew. He had worked hard to suppress the rise of financial groups. From a developmental perspective, this was inevitable. As financial power expanded and France’s economy did not grow proportionately, emerging powers naturally clashed with established interests. The Bonapartes had regained power thanks to support from the peasantry and the nobility. Consequently, Napoleon IV had to represent the interests of these two classes. France’s financial groups were rich and influential, but politically and militarily they were weak, clearly no match for the aristocracy that controlled the government. To keep growing, the financial groups had no choice but to expand the pie. Promoting the Central European Strategy was the best solution. It addressed the limitations of domestic industry and trade, and also furthered capitalist development, increasing the strength of the financial groups. Foreign Minister Émile Flourens reminded him, “Your Majesty, we can take our time tracing the culprits. Recently, many European nations have been questioning our Central European Strategy. The domestic unrest has drawn attention from all sides. Just last week, the Belgian government decided to expand its reserve forces by another corps. Once the plan is complete, Belgium’s total military force will reach 154,000. The German federation also convened a federal meeting. King George I proposed following Austria’s model to implement a nationwide reserve system and train another 1.5 million reservists. Along with the current standing army, that would mean adding 300,000 reservists. They are now busy discussing how to distribute troops among each member state. If Germany completes this plan, its standing army would surpass 500,000. In an all-out mobilization, Germany and Belgium combined would field over two million troops.” Without a doubt, France’s internal turmoil had frightened Belgium and Germany into massively expanding their forces. If they actually completed their plans, arming all able-bodied men, France’s Central European Strategy might no longer be viable. “They are blatantly breaking the arms agreements. Are they not afraid of international sanctions?” Napoleon IV immediately realized his own mistake. With war looming, who cared about that anymore? Given how wary the rest of Europe was of France, most countries would likely turn a blind eye to Belgian and German rearmament or even support it. Such blatant favoritism was clearly unfriendly to France. After a pause, Napoleon IV said slowly, “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs must find a way to sabotage the military buildup of Belgium and Germany. If necessary, we can offer them security guarantees.” Whether or not the Central European Strategy moved forward, the French government had to disrupt their rearmament plans. Otherwise, France would go from being the threat to being threatened. There was no other option. France simply had too many enemies. What if Austria persuaded Belgium and Germany to join forces with Switzerland and Spain to encircle France? That scenario was not far-fetched. History had already seen anti-French coalitions. It could happen again. These neighboring countries had all been defeated by France in the past, and both the resentment and conflicting interests remained. Émile Flourens answered with a bitter smile, “The Foreign Ministry has already taken action, but Belgium and Germany do not trust us at all. On top of that, Austria is meddling. Just yesterday morning, Franz sent an open letter to both governments, praising them for their efforts in maintaining European stability.” Stirring the pot was one of Franz’s specialties. Encouraging rearmament in Belgium and Germany was all gain and no risk for Austria. If war broke out in Europe, Belgium and Germany would serve as natural shields for Austria, standing in the path of France’s eastward advance whether they liked it or not. If war didn’t break out, Austria would gain more time to consolidate. With its vast territory, once the Near East was developed, Austria could use its comprehensive national power to suppress its rivals. Minister of War Lusquinye Hafize said, “If we can’t dissuade Belgium and Germany from rearming, then we must launch the Central European Strategy early. If they complete their aggressive plans, we will lose the initiative, and implementing the strategy will become much more difficult.” Prime Minister Terence Bourquin shook his head and said, “The real problem is not Belgium or Germany. Their plans sound ambitious, but are practically unworkable. Belgium’s expansion might be achievable on paper, but can they afford to maintain that many troops? As for the German Federation, with so many small states, not all of them see us as enemies. If war breaks out, coordinating all their armies would be a nightmare. To the rulers of the member states, the Hanoverian central government is also an adversary. No one wants to give up control of their own forces. The real threat is Austria. If we pursue the Central European Strategy, Austria is more than ninety percent likely to intervene. Given the current international landscape, I believe we must seriously weaken Austria’s power before we proceed.” If France invaded Belgium and Germany, Austria was almost certain to join the war. But if France and Austria fought, Belgium and Germany might remain neutral. This was not shortsightedness. If they helped Austria defeat France, Germany would certainly unify, and King George I would lose relevance. Such a self-sacrificing move was unthinkable for him. The smaller states under the central government would also be content to avoid action. Their alliance with Austria was one of interest, not loyalty. Without German support, Belgium would be even less likely to get involved. Secret treaties would not matter as the Kingdom of Belgium lacked the strength to get involved. Minister of War Lusquinye Hafize rejected the Prime Minister’s optimism saying, “That would be the best-case scenario, but it is unrealistic. Our relationship with Austria has lasted not because of friendship or minimal conflict, but because neither side can defeat the other. Geography is the key. The Alps are a natural barrier. Even if we defeat Austria, we would be stopped at Venice. Austria is not a small country. Losing Lombardy and Venice would not cripple them. However, the Austrian government would never concede, and we would face wave after wave of Austrian troops—a million, two million, three million—wearing us down. If Austria were alone, we might still win. The problem is the rest of Europe. Spain, Germany, Belgium, and Switzerland might all turn against us. Especially Britain and Russia. They might be locked in fierce fighting in Afghanistan, but the terrain prevents them from going all in. Unless we can ensure that Britain and Russia are both exhausted by their conflict and delay long enough for them to be weakened, we cannot avoid their interference.” The example of the Russo-Prussian War had taught Europe that war between great powers, especially populous ones, was suicidal. Without a quick victory, both sides would suffer immensely, regardless of who won. Militarily, if France and Austria fought, it should be in Central Europe. The victor could then pass through Belgium to advance further. If the war happened in Italy, it would be limited. Both countries had the protection of the Alps, making it impossible to strike at each other’s core. Looking at Napoleon IV, Émile Flourens disagreed: “If war breaks out with Austria, the Foreign Ministry might be able to keep the rest of Europe neutral until the outcome is clear. But once we gain the upper hand, other powers will definitely intervene, and most will oppose us. Even our ally Britain would not be an exception. To the British government, any disruption of Europe’s balance of power is unacceptable.” There was no helping it. The historical French Empire had been too powerful, so powerful that it had no friends. Europe remained deeply wary of the Bonaparte dynasty. Despite the devastation France had suffered since the Paris Revolution, no one had changed their views.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH) Support the translation at https://ko-fi.com/dragonlegion
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