Chancellor Karl stated, “If we can’t keep them in line, then we’ll have to suppress them. The Russo-Austrian alliance has brought the Russians too many benefits over the years. If they’re still not satisfied, then there’s no reason to continue...” A conflict between Russia and Austria was only a matter of time. Human desire is never-ending, and Austria can’t keep feeding Russia’s appetite forever. Even though Franz had mentally prepared for it, he didn’t expect it to come this soon. Right now, it’s only the French making moves, and it’s already this troublesome. If the British join in later, things will get even harder to handle. It’s almost certain that as long as Britain and France are willing to throw enough money at the problem, Russia will switch sides sooner or later, because Austria simply can’t outbid them. That’s determined by geography. Austria blocks Russia’s westward expansion, and the Austrian government has no room to make further concessions on that front. If a major shift happens in the international landscape, the massive debts between Austria and Russia could also become a reason for the two countries to turn against each other. When a country can’t repay its foreign debt, it sometimes chooses to eliminate the creditor. There’s precedent for this kind of thing on the European continent. Given Russia’s track record, Franz wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if it happened again. Foreign Minister Weissenberg shook his head and said with a smile, “Things aren’t that bad yet. Right now, there are three main reasons stopping the Russians from switching sides: First, Britain and France haven’t taken the matter seriously enough, and the price they’ve offered Russia isn’t high so there’s not enough incentive for betrayal. Second, the Russo-Austrian friendship dates back to the wars against France and has lasted for three generations. From the general public to the government, pro-Austrian sentiment still holds the advantage. Third, the economic and trade ties between the two countries are significant. If they were to turn hostile, Russia’s fledgling national industries would suffer a devastating blow. Unless those three problems are resolved, at most they’ll just ease tensions. The Russo-Austrian alliance can still continue. Judging from the current situation, the French are simply trying to sow discord between us and the Russians. They’re not yet trying to drag Russia into a war against us. Even if Britain and France act together, the Russians won’t switch sides overnight. I can say with confidence that the Russians do not want to face us on the battlefield.” That explanation brought a sense of relief to many. Solving all three issues at once is nearly impossible. Especially the last two as Russo-Austrian friendship has been forged over three generations and confirmed by six monarchs. Politicians can change their positions on a whim, but shifting public opinion takes far more time. The “pro-Austrian faction” isn’t just a product of rhetoric, it’s a group firmly tied to real, tangible interests. If Russia and Austria were to break ties, this group would become the biggest victim. Conversely, there’s also a “pro-Russian faction” within Austria, composed of those who have benefited from the close Russo-Austrian relationship. When interests are involved, persuasion alone won’t change people’s minds. If the Russian government wants to turn its back on Austria, it must first suppress its domestic pro-Austrian faction. The industrial issue is even trickier. Even with British and French assistance, it wouldn’t be something that could be resolved in just a few years. If Austria were to suddenly impose a blockade on Russia, it wouldn’t even take six months before the majority of factories in Russia would shut down due to problems with machinery and equipment. Of course, this is something many people haven’t realized yet. After all, without any historical precedent, who would’ve thought that controlling a country’s industry could start with the supply of machinery parts? When it comes to building a secure defensive moat, Franz was satisfied. With so many layers of protection in place, Austria is far more dependable than the German Empire in the original timeline. As things currently stand, as long as Austria doesn’t do something that provokes universal outrage, Britain, France, and Russia won’t be able to form a true alliance. The French feel threatened by Austria and want to win Russia over to ease the pressure, but the problem is that the British currently see Russia as the real threat. As for Austria, although it’s a bit stronger and more active, it still hasn’t touched any of Britain’s core interests. In the minds of most Britons, the French are considered Britain’s greatest enemy, with the Russians coming in second. Austria usually ranks fourth or fifth behind even the annoying Americans. This ranking doesn’t have much practical significance, as it’s heavily influenced by nationalistic emotions. In the original timeline, on the eve of World War I, the French were seen as Britain’s main rival. That’s why John Bull dragged his allies down during the war and laid traps for them afterward. It wasn’t entirely without reason. After weighing the pros and cons, Franz said slowly, “Since the situation is still within a manageable range for now, let’s wait before taking action. The Ministry of Agriculture should begin preparations. As soon as France starts seeing results from its large-scale agricultural development plan, we’ll roll out the new potassium fertilizer and cut them off at the root.” If Austria can’t make money from grain production, then no one else should be able to profit either. Mass-producing synthetic ammonia still involves technical challenges, but mining potassium buried in the ground doesn’t require much skill. Phosphate fertilizers have been around for a while and adding potassium fertilizers into the mix could easily increase yields by over ten percent. A global rollout isn’t realistic just yet, but within a few years, raising grain output across most of Europe is quite achievable. There was no doubt about it. An agricultural crisis is sure to erupt, and it could be more devastating than ever before. The open-minded French public has always been at the forefront of global agriculture and is quite enthusiastic about promoting chemical fertilizers. If agricultural output in mainland France increases by over ten percent, and with contributions from colonial farms, domestic grain supply would basically be self-sufficient. The French government surely wouldn’t suppress its own agriculture just to make room in the market for Russian products, would it? When the agricultural crisis hits and global grain prices collapse, combined with a potential French default, it’s unclear whether the Russian government could withstand such a double blow. Franz was already silently mourning for Alexander III in advance. If the Russians are taken for a ride that badly, they’ll definitely hold a grudge and that’s Austria’s opportunity. Whether it’s about interests or strategy, people ultimately make the decisions. And as long as people are involved, personal emotions will inevitably come into play; no one can be entirely rational. There’s no harm in trying to nudge things a bit. How would you know if it’ll work unless you try? If it succeeds, it’s a huge win; if it fails, just pretend nothing happened. With thick enough skin, there’s nothing to fear. … Following Franz’s command, the Ministry of Agriculture quickly got to work. The existence of “potassium fertilizer” wasn’t exactly news as it had been discovered a while ago. But Franz had kept related information under wraps. At present, only agricultural experts were researching it in experimental zones, and it hadn’t yet been applied in actual farming. Even Holz, the Minister of Agriculture, had only heard of it by name. Once he received the report, Holz finally understood its specific composition. Agriculture’s demand for potassium fertilizer is enormous. Ashes from plants certainly won’t be enough to meet that need. There’s no doubt about it, they had to start mining immediately! Thanks to Franz’s memories, he knew that wood ash was essentially a weaker form of potassium fertilizer. This was a realization sparked by the widespread controversy in his original world over the ban on burning wheat straw. That media uproar had made quite an impression. So, this particular breakthrough came from directing scientists to study the components of wood ash that were beneficial to agricultural production, and then searching for similar elements in nature. What potassium ore actually looked like, Franz had no idea, let alone where it was commonly found. But that wasn’t a major problem. The Austrian government had a habit of cataloging its natural resources. Any discovered mineral deposit, useful or not, would be recorded and filed. When the Ministry of Agriculture knocked on the door of the Mining Bureau, Holz could no longer stay calm. According to the available data, Austria was apparently a potassium-poor country. “Director Rogers,” Holz said, “are you telling me that in this vast Austrian Empire, we can’t even find a few sizable potassium mines? Look at this report. The data hasn’t been updated in seven or eight years. Couldn’t your people at least...” Rank has its privileges. Even though Holz wasn’t Rogers’ direct superior, the relentless complaints from the Minister of Agriculture left the director with no room to argue. Trying to stay patient, Rogers explained, “Sir, potassium isn’t considered an important resource, so the Mining Bureau hasn’t assigned any dedicated teams to search for it. These were incidental discoveries made by exploratory teams during unrelated surveys. The listed reserves are just preliminary estimates, they don’t reflect confirmed quantities. If the Ministry of Agriculture needs it, we can assign a team to conduct detailed surveys and determine the actual reserves.” There was really no helping it since nature contained far too many types of minerals. Even the same kind of ore could display different characteristics depending on its composition. For common ores, exploration teams could identify them easily. But rare or unusual minerals were often misidentified, and in fact, there were thousands of mines listed in the archives where the type of ore couldn’t even be determined and were simply marked as “unknown.” Of course, thousands of “unknown” mines didn’t mean there were thousands of unknown minerals. When prospectors failed to recognize an ore, it usually came down to two reasons: either it was an extremely rare mineral with little to no practical value at the moment, or it was a mineral that had yet to be discovered and studied by humans. From the Mining Bureau’s perspective, sometimes having too much territory was a burden. Austria had already cataloged hundreds of thousands of mining sites, large and small. They hadn’t even finished developing the ones with economic value so it was no surprise that something like “potassium ore,” which wasn’t seen as particularly valuable, hadn’t drawn much attention. Holz nodded and said, “Then get moving. No matter what it takes, I want you to find a sufficient supply of potassium ore within three years. No excuses! I refuse to believe that a vast empire like Austria doesn’t have even a few potassium mines.” *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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