Since receiving news about the French “Large-Scale Agricultural Development Plan,” a smile had rarely appeared on Alexander III’s face in St. Petersburg. Now, with the British Parliament passing the “Food Self-Sufficiency Plan,” it is easy to imagine how he must be feeling. There was no way around it. Grain exports were simply too important to the Russian Empire. They accounted for the largest share of the nation’s foreign exchange earnings and affected the livelihoods of tens of millions of people. Ever since Alexander II completed the agricultural reforms, the Russian Empire had been stuck in a dilemma of grain oversupply. Except during the years of the Russo-Prussian War, the Russian government had to worry about finding markets for its grain every year. This issue was partly rooted in a decree from the time of Alexander II. Back then, while preparing for the Second Russo-Prussian War, the government needed to procure military grain supplies. At the same time, an agricultural crisis had hit, leaving grain unsold and the populace unable to pay taxes. In response, Alexander II issued a decree allowing peasants to pay taxes in grain. This policy allowed the Russian government to quickly amass enough grain for the military, laying the groundwork for victory in the Second Russo-Prussian War. The side effect, however, was that the Russian government started receiving huge amounts of grain every year. Especially in remote regions, nearly all the peasants paid their taxes with grain. Reversing this policy had become impossible. Russia’s transportation infrastructure was extremely poor, and grain from remote areas simply could not fetch a good price. Some could not be sold at all. For the peasants, it was far more cost-effective to pay taxes in kind than to try selling the grain. To abolish the decree would be to antagonize tens of millions of peasants, which was something Alexander III naturally dared not do. If the Russian government had held this much grain a few decades ago, it would have swept across the European continent, crushing all resistance with unstoppable force. Unfortunately, times have changed. What the current Russian government wants most is to turn the grain into cash. The domestic market is out of the question. Grain prices are already low, and releasing this much grain would crash the market entirely. Internationally, there is also an oversupply of grain. Combined with political factors, Russia’s grain export prospects are far from smooth. If Austria had not taken the lead in forming a grain export alliance, encouraging everyone to cut back on exports to stabilize grain prices, the international market would have already collapsed. Even after international grain prices stabilized, the Russian government only felt slightly relieved. The export quota allocated to them still could not absorb all the grain the government received each year. Of course, not all of the surplus went to waste. The Russian government did come up with several ideas, such as raising livestock and brewing alcohol. The first approach ultimately failed. Raising livestock was easy enough, but selling them proved to be very difficult. The domestic market seemed large, but most ordinary people were poor. Just filling their stomachs was already a struggle, so they simply could not afford such products. The international market was a bit larger, but transporting live animals was difficult, and once slaughtered, the meat could not be preserved. Salted meat did not fetch a good price on the global market either. These days, food safety is already riddled with risks. If the words “Product of Russia” are added on top of that, about ninety-nine percent of consumers would likely be scared away. That is the power of branding. Russian food is just that reassuring. When other countries export food, there is only a chance that problems might exist. When Russia exports food, problems are almost guaranteed. This conclusion is based on the personal experience of the European public. The Russian government did make efforts to change this image, but all those attempts were ultimately rendered useless thanks to the combined efforts of bureaucrats and capitalists. A good example would be the sales of meat products in the Russian market. The expensive ones are all imports, while domestically produced meat cannot fetch a decent price. Whenever their finances allow it, people always choose the safer, imported food. This does not just apply to meat products. Even flour is the same. Many people are aware that the flour is made from Russian wheat exported to Austria, then processed and re-imported. Even so, they would still rather pay a premium for peace of mind. In the end, the only ones who benefited from the push to develop animal husbandry were the herders in border regions. They could drive their livestock across the border to Austria to sell. As for developing the industry, there is little hope. From the beginning, these animals were labeled as “Russian imports.” Once a perception becomes entrenched, it is not so easy to change. With that label, this portion of meat products had no market in Austria at all. Many were processed into salted meat and canned goods, which eventually ended up back on the Russian market. Compared to the failure of the livestock industry, the Russian government’s alcohol production was flourishing. It had already become the largest supplier of alcoholic beverages in Europe, mainly selling cheap liquor. It was truly cheap, to the point where no one else could even attempt to imitate it. Based on the market price of grain, the sale of this grain alcohol could not even cover production costs. Of course, being “cheap” alone was not enough for Russia to become Europe’s biggest alcohol supplier. The more crucial factor was that the Russian Empire itself was also the largest consumer of alcohol in Europe. Austria, with a similar population size, consumed less than half the amount of alcohol per year. If alcohol content were calculated instead of volume, the gap would be even larger. In a sense, the surplus grain production had fueled the development of alcohol culture among the Russian people, making the title of “nation of barrels” truly deserved. This was something forced by circumstance. The Russian government had no desire to be this extravagant, but if the excess grain was not used to produce alcohol for sale, it would simply rot in storage. It took great effort to finally deal with the surplus grain. Now, Britain and France were stirring up trouble again. Although there was little immediate impact, if their plans were fully implemented, the Russian government would lose its most important source of foreign currency income. With a dark expression, Alexander III demanded, “The British Parliament has already passed the Food Self-Sufficiency Plan, completely disregarding our withdrawal from the free trade system. So, who can tell me what the Austrians are doing?” This was an obvious issue. For the British Parliament to pass the proposal so smoothly, the Austrian government clearly had not done its best to stop it. Given Austria’s influence, even if it could not change the minds of the British, it should have been able to at least delay the matter in Parliament for a while. Considering everything that had happened recently, Alexander III had reason to suspect that the Austrian government had made some kind of deal with Britain and France behind the scenes, betraying the interests of the Russian Empire. Foreign Minister Nikolay Girs said, “Your Majesty, not long ago the Austrian government issued an agricultural upgrade announcement. According to the document, over the next five years Austria will reduce wheat cultivation by five percent, potato cultivation by three percent, and so on, in order to respond to a new wave of agricultural crisis. If this plan is fully implemented, their domestic market will be able to absorb their own grain production, essentially freeing them from dependence on the international market.” In essence, Franz had been forced into this decision. The importance of grain was self-evident. If he could monopolize the grain export market, he would fight for it to the bitter end, even at a loss. Unfortunately, Austria was not in a position to monopolize grain exports at present. Even though it held the largest share in the international agricultural export market, with a market share approaching monopoly levels, that dominant position was not secure. To solidify its status as the leading power, it first had to suppress several other grain-producing countries, especially its neighbor, the Russian Empire. The international situation shifts constantly. Today, Britain, France, and Russia may be enemies; tomorrow, they could become allies. On their own, the Russians did not yet have the capacity to develop an agricultural processing industry that posed a serious threat. But with foreign support, the story would be different. If one day the Russians were to strike a deal with the French or the British and attract a wave of British and French capitalists to invest, the consequences could be severe. Setting up agricultural processing plants in coastal cities would be dangerous, because: “advanced technology, cheap industrial raw materials, cheap labor, and a vast market equals success.” Faced with that kind of combination, Austria could only be dragged into a passive price war, relying on its financial strength to hurt its opponent at the cost of itself. Knowing full well that the prospects for profit were bleak and that the interests of tens of millions of farmers were involved, Franz could not recklessly race down this dead-end road just out of spite. To minimize losses, it was only natural to push for a domestic agricultural transformation before the entire table was flipped. In this age of rapidly advancing technology, reducing the area of land used for growing grain does not necessarily mean reducing total grain output. These are two entirely different concepts. Of course, to outsiders, it looked as if the Austrian government had run out of options and had no choice but to cut back on grain production to cope with the coming agricultural crisis. With a loud bang, the coffee cup in front of Alexander III flew across the room. Austria’s retreat at this moment was no good news for the Russian Empire. If Austria could back off in grain production, it could just as easily scale back in agricultural processing. Once Britain and France achieved food self-sufficiency, Austria might abandon that sector entirely. As the economy developed, the share of agricultural processing in Austria’s overall economy was steadily declining. Moreover, losing part of the foreign market did not mean the agricultural processing industry was doomed. The real impact would fall mainly on primary processors like flour mills. Other food and agricultural product processing businesses would remain largely unaffected. For the industry as a whole, the damage would be minimal. The ones truly in trouble were countries like Russia, who relied on exporting raw materials. After all, processing companies could pivot or pass on losses, but the Russian government had no way to shift the burden elsewhere. *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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