Saint Petersburg Ever since receiving news of the Anglo-Persian secret treaty, Alexander III had been losing even more hair. Casually tossing aside the telegram in his hand, he complained, “Damn those British! Can’t they just behave for once? I’ve only had a few days of peace, and now they’re stirring up trouble again. Do they really think we’re that easy to bully…?” Heaven knows, he truly did not want to start any conflicts right now. Wouldn’t it be better to focus on internal development in peace? Why did trouble always have to arise? Minister of Finance Alisher Gulov advised, “Your Majesty, this is a British scheme. They are provoking conflict in Persia at this moment precisely to hinder the Russian Empire’s recovery. We absolutely cannot let them succeed.” He was genuinely worried that the young and hot-blooded Tsar might, in a fit of rage, recklessly charge into war against the British. This sort of thing had happened more than a few times in the history of Russian Tsars. To be precise, similar impulsive decisions had occurred all over the world. It was only in modern times, after countless painful lessons, that leaders had finally started acting rationally. Right now, the Russian Empire was in no condition to launch a war. First, there had been the Russo-Prussian War, followed by an economic crisis. The empire was at its weakest. Before Alexander III could respond, Minister of War Pyotr Vannovsky spoke up first: “Everyone knows this is a British ploy, but so what? The interests of the Russian Empire cannot be violated. The Persian issue is just a test. If we do not crush their delusions, even greater troubles will follow. If the world starts believing that the Russian Empire is in decline, then our enemies will not be limited to just the British.” The Russian Empire had made too many enemies. When it was strong, these were mere minor annoyances, not worth worrying about. But things are different now. The empire was at its weakest. The only thing keeping its enemies at bay was the lingering fear of its past power. No matter how terrifying a tiger once was, if it became a sickly beast, it could no longer hide its weakness. If it failed to intimidate the other predators of the forest, it would become prey to the wolves. To prevent the worst from happening, the Russian government had taken many measures, including restoring the Austro-Russian alliance and actively participating in the Near East War. On one hand, they used alliances to deter rivals. On the other, they showcased their military strength on the battlefield to prove that the Russian Empire was still powerful. To speed up recovery, the Russian government even sold off spoils from the Near East War, securing large sums to improve its finances. Yet the tests kept coming. The Persian issue was just the beginning. If the Russian Empire showed any sign of weakness, endless troubles would follow. The more they thought about it, the more anxious everyone became. As their minds raced, they started piecing together a grand conspiracy against the Russian Empire. Sensing the growing tension, Foreign Minister Nikolay Girs quickly interjected, “Gentlemen, the situation is not as dire as it seems. The British may be testing us, but the Persian issue also affects Austria’s interests. As long as we align with the Austrian government, the situation remains under control. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already discussed this with the Austrian government. They suggest confronting the Persian government directly and disregarding the British entirely.” The Austro-Russian alliance was an unstoppable force on the Eurasian continent, especially after the downfall of the Prussian-Polish Federation. Even if the other nations combined their efforts, they would still be unable to shake this dominant power. The British stirring up trouble was not a problem. After all, they were not on the continent, and the Royal Navy was more than capable of ensuring their security. But if they thought they could bring down Austria and Russia directly, that was simply impossible. Minister of War Nikolay Girs asked in confusion, “Is Austria planning to take action against Persia?” Pyotr Vannovsky rubbed his forehead in frustration. There was no helping it as his colleagues were impossible to reason with. The war-hardened Russians always preferred violent solutions, and the high-ranking officials in the Russian government were no exception. With no choice but to explain, he said, “The treaty between Britain and Persia was a secret agreement. Neither government has publicly acknowledged it, so we can simply pretend we know nothing. By confronting the Persian government now, we can deliberately propose terms that contradict those in the secret treaty, forcing Britain’s plan to fail. If Austria really wanted to take military action in Persia, they wouldn’t need such a complicated strategy. They could simply march in and take it by force.” “Simply march in and take it by force”—now that was the true way of the great powers. Finding a justification for war could always come later. Once an invasion was underway, there was no need to rationalize it. This was different from the Near East War. The Ottoman Empire had long been Europe’s common enemy. A quick look through the history books was enough to turn an invasion into a war of retribution. International opinion has always been highly biased. Any war fought in the name of avenging the will of the European people had to be considered just. Given the broader geopolitical context, even the British, known for their disruptive tactics, did not persist in stirring up trouble over this issue. An invasion of Persia was out of the question. After all, the Persian Empire had no historical enmity with the Habsburgs, and its connection to the European world was nearly nonexistent. This answer left Alexander III with mixed feelings. On the one hand, he was relieved that the issue could be resolved without the situation escalating further. On the other hand, it meant that Russia had become even more dependent on Austria. For years, the Russian government had been trying to reduce its reliance on Austria, a policy initiated by Alexander II. Efforts were made to distance Russia from Austria diplomatically, aiming for greater independence. Yet, after all the maneuvering, they had come full circle and the problem had only worsened. What was supposed to be a plan to break free from Austrian influence had, in the end, only deepened their dependence. If things continued this way, Russia would be left with no choice but to fully accept its role as Austria’s underling. Having learned from his father’s mistakes, Alexander III did not blindly weaken diplomatic ties in an attempt to escape Austria’s influence. But beyond that, he was at a loss. He had no idea what else could be done. Breaking free from Austria’s dominance was possible, but the cost would be enormous. Political dependence could be managed, but the real problem was economic reliance. Once again, reality proved that international loans were never as beneficial as they seemed. Due to the condition requiring Russia to purchase only Austrian goods, Russian industry had lost its own unique characteristics and had instead become a mere imitation of Austria’s. No, Russian industry still had its own “style.” Whenever they purchased Austrian machinery, they made modifications to the products they manufactured, altering their design, size, and functionality. Unfortunately, these changes were not improvements but regressions. They couldn’t even copy Austria’s industrial model properly, let alone develop their own independent innovations. Once they bought the first generation of machines, they had to buy the second. Over time, this became routine. The lasting consequence was that Russian industry was forced to adopt Austrian standards. By now, no country besides Austria could sell industrial machinery in the Russian Empire. The issue wasn’t price or quality but incompatibility with the established standard system. Industrial development depends on a well-integrated supply chain. Changing standards would require modifications across all levels of production. Altering just one segment would immediately cause disruptions. Even for industries with lower supply chain dependence, capitalists had to consider long-term maintenance costs. Without a compatible standard system, even replacing a simple screw required importing parts from the original equipment manufacturer. If small components were inexpensive, suppliers might provide them as complimentary spares. But when heavy machinery broke down and foreign technicians had to be brought in for repairs, the costs became unmanageable. Every business had to consider expenses, and no one would willingly create unnecessary problems for themselves. Russia also didn’t have enough large factories to justify foreign equipment suppliers stationing technical personnel in the country full-time. Alexander III had some understanding of economics and did not make reckless moves just to break free from Austria’s influence. Since Russia couldn’t produce industrial machinery domestically and had to rely on imports, it made more sense to buy from Austria rather than from Britain or France. At least Austria was an ally. Under the framework of free trade, Austria achieved a monopoly on industrial equipment by promoting its standards, offering a valuable lesson to many European economists. In fact, some universities even included the Russian Empire as a case study in business textbooks, presenting it as a textbook example of how industrial dependence could shape economic policy. From beginning to end, the Russian government never realized that Britain’s actions were meant as a response to the Central Asian conflicts. In that sense, the British government’s “warning” was a wasted effort. The Russians never even made the connection. This wasn’t due to incompetence but rather a difference in perspective. While outsiders viewed Russian military activity in Central Asia as a major issue, the Russian government considered it trivial. Raiding a few sheep, cattle, and horses, along with seizing a patch of pastureland, was nothing new. The Russians had been doing this for centuries. It had become second nature, so no one in the Russian government saw it as a problem. Who could have expected the British to make such a fuss over it? Even if the British government compiled all the evidence and presented it to the Tsar, there was no guarantee that the Russians would take it seriously. … On April 13, 1885, the Mahdist rebels ambushed the vanguard of the French counterinsurgency army in the region of Edfu. The battle was a sight to behold. Despite having a numerical advantage and catching the French completely off guard, the battle somehow ended in a draw. When the news reached them, Hutier and his officers found it hard to believe. Even if the French army was made of paper, it shouldn’t have been this fragile. During a military meeting, Mahdi, his face dark with anger, reprimanded his commanders: “Incredible! Aren’t you all supposed to be skilled fighters? More than 30,000 men ambushing less than 5,000 enemies with every possible advantage was on your side and you still only managed a draw? If you had met them in the open field without the benefit of an ambush, would the French have completely annihilated you instead? Useless!...” Listening to Mahdi’s scolding, Hutier began to grasp what had really happened. Despite outnumbering the enemy six to one and launching a well-prepared ambush, they had failed to wipe out the French force. Instead, the enemy managed to break through and escape. This outcome was nothing short of a joke, yet it had actually happened. Calling it a “draw” was nothing more than self-consolation. A glance at the casualty ratio told the real story: 3.4 to 1. The Mahdist forces had nearly wiped out a French regiment, but at the cost of an entire division of their own. Judging by everyone’s expressions, Hutier suspected that the supposed “annihilation” of the French forces might have been exaggerated. If they had truly wiped out a full regiment of regular French troops, they would probably be celebrating by now. A bad feeling crept over him. He silently wondered: Could it be that the so-called French troops were actually just colonial forces? Fortunately, among the prisoners were genuine French soldiers, confirming that regular army units had indeed participated in the battle. If even colonial forces had managed to inflict such heavy losses on them, there was no point in discussing strategy anymore, they might as well pack up and go home. The mission would be hopeless. With the main rebel forces suffering severe casualties, Mahdi once again turned to the British and Austrian representatives, hoping for greater support. Having seen his fair share of conflicts, Lieutenant General Jarrett remained unfazed by the outcome of the ambush. Instead of showing dissatisfaction, he calmly addressed the group, “Gentlemen, what’s done is done. Let’s move on. As per usual, the French vanguard tends to consist of elite troops, so it’s no surprise they put up a strong fight. The forces following behind them won’t be as formidable. Right now, the priority is to reorganize and train the Mahdist army, improving their combat effectiveness as much as possible. I expect that the mistakes exposed in this ambush will not be repeated in future battles.” *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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