Not only was the British government trying to raise funds to help Prussia, but the French were also not idly sitting by. However, they were not raising money but rather were busy bickering. In terms of economic development, Napoleon III can be considered outstanding. In the past decade or so, the French economy has maintained rapid growth. This was particularly evident in fiscal revenue. In 1851, France’s fiscal revenue was 1.273 billion francs, but by 1864 it had nearly reached 2 billion francs. This did not even include the Kingdom of Sardinia. Otherwise, it could add a few more hundred million. It being the most prosperous region in Italy was not merely boasting. After joining under the French umbrella, the market problems that had plagued Sardinian capitalists were finally resolved, and the local economy began to develop rapidly. However, where there were benefits there were also drawbacks, as French capitalists also came in droves. The weak local Sardinian capitalists were clearly no match for the French capitalists, and could only use its home turf advantage to contend with them. These struggles were concealed under the veil of massive economic development. After all, they were making more money, so even if competition was fiercer, their wallets could not lie. With fiscal revenues approaching 2 billion francs, or nearly 80 million pounds, the United Kingdom’s fiscal revenues at the time were less than 70 million pounds, with a gap of up to 10 million pounds between the two sides’ revenues. Of course, this does not mean that France’s economic strength has surpassed that of the British. In this era, the fiscal revenues of various countries only represent domestic fiscal revenues, without considering colonial income. Furthermore, one must consider the allocation of fiscal resources between central and local governments, as well as the different tax systems, which also affect the level of fiscal revenue. However, these data still indirectly prove the rapid development of the French economy. Before Napoleon III came to power, France’s fiscal revenue was lower than Britain’s, but now it has surpassed it. With the significant increase in fiscal revenue, the French government not only escaped the financial crisis but also gained the ability to engage in “Franc diplomacy”. Economically capable of supporting Prussia and aiming to replace Russia’s hegemonic position in Europe, Napoleon III’s intentions do not necessarily translate into actual support for Prussia by the French. Within the French government, there have always been two opposing voices regarding whether to support Prussia in this war: One faction advocated for aiding Prussia, seeing an opportunity to weaken Russia and lay the groundwork for France to seize hegemony in Europe. Another faction suggested observing Prussia’s defeat, seizing the opportunity to annex the Rhineland, thereby enhancing France’s industrial strength and compensating for resource deficiencies. However, both these propositions hinge on the outbreak of conflict between Prussia and Russia. Hence, before the war, the French government supported Prussia and even provided an advance aid package of 50 million francs in interest-free loans. Now that the war has erupted, the question of whether to continue support has become the focal point of contention between the two sides. Finance Minister Eren proposed, “The power disparity between Prussia and Russia is too vast. Even with our support, it cannot change the outcome of the war. Continuing to invest precious funds in the Prussian government would be a waste. Our strategic objectives have already been achieved with the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War. We need not do anything but wait to receive the Rhineland after the war.” Foreign Minister Abraham objected, “No, It is at this time that Russia is at its weakest. Despite Prussia being slightly weaker, they still mustered a 700,000-strong army. Coupled with the outbreak of the Polish independence movement, which has tied up a significant portion of Russian forces, the Russian government may not have the capability to defeat Prussia in one fell swoop. As long as the war continues, the Russians will halt internal reforms due to financial constraints. This is what all European countries hope to see. The Austrian government will not provide too much support to the Russians at this time. If the war can be prolonged for 1-2 years, the Russian government will ultimately succumb due to financial constraints rather than military defeat.” Finance is the weak point of the Russians. While Alexander II’s reforms are underway, the returns brought about by the reforms have not yet been reflected in their fiscal revenues. Due to the significant financial cost of the Near East War, during the late reign of Nicholas I, efforts were made to offset the losses from the war, leaving insufficient resources to support a major conflict for Alexander II. It was precisely because they saw Russia’s weakness that the Prussian nobles dared to plot this war. It was also for this reason that the British supported Prussia. Finance Minister Eren shook his head and said, “The Prussian Kingdom’s 700,000 troops — do I even need to explain? At most 400,000 are combat effective, the rest are just making up the numbers by carrying guns. Now, among the European countries capable of fielding a 700,000-strong army, there are only us, Russia, and Austria. Even if the Kingdom of Prussia is rampant in military spending, its national strength still limits its military capabilities. Meanwhile, the Russians have a standing army of over a million already. To defeat the Prussian Kingdom, they don’t even need to mobilize them all. Setting aside the Russo-Austrian alliance, as long as the Russian government promised Austria substantial benefits, the Austrian government would provide them with loans. After all, these benefits are carved up from the Prussians. Austria’s financial strength may not match ours, but it’s not far off. It is enough to support the Russians in defeating Prussia. Moreover, does the Russian Empire really lack resources? As an old empire, if the Russian government is willing, they can come up with billions in war funds. In my opinion, pinning our hopes on a Russian financial collapse is not as practical as praying to God for Prussia to persevere.” The precondition for supporting the Kingdom of Prussia is that they can win, or at least significantly weaken the Russians; only then can this investment be deemed worthwhile. If the Kingdom of Prussia is easily defeated by the Russians, then all these investments will be in vain. Don’t expect Prussia to have the ability to repay debts after defeat; whether they can maintain their status as a country depends on whether other countries will continue to support them. …… Both sides were claiming they were right. The indecisive Napoleon III had a headache — both viewpoints were very reasonable, making it difficult to decide. This debate dragged on for many days before Napoleon III finally made up his mind. “Alright, I’ve decided to provide a loan to the Kingdom of Prussia. However, they must use the sovereignty of the Rhineland as collateral to ensure the safety of our loan.” This was a compromise. It supported the Kingdom of Prussia to continue the war while providing a pretext for seizing the Rhineland. If the Kingdom of Prussia won the war, the strategy of significantly weakening the Russians would be realized, bringing France one step closer to being the hegemon of Europe. Conversely, if Prussia were defeated, they would be unable to repay the debt, and the collateral could be seized directly. On the surface, it seemed like the best choice; regardless of the post-war outcome, they wouldn’t lose out. However, in reality, this was just Napoleon III’s wishful thinking. The European countries would not just stand by and let them succeed. The British didn’t want to witness the birth of a continental hegemon, nor did the Russians want to fall from their position of dominance. The mutual containment among France, Austria, and Russia, where no one could gain an overwhelming advantage, was what they desired to see. Due to geopolitical factors, even if Franz had no intention of vying for hegemony over the continent, he would still not let France become the new hegemon. Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, the various Italian states, the German Federal Empire, and the Kingdom of Prussia, all neighbors of the French, were equally unwilling to witness the rise of France. A joint defense treaty against France was the best weapon to contain them. How could a country loathed by its neighbors become the continental hegemon? Could it rely solely on strength? It seemed the French weren’t that formidable yet. While the Russians could maintain their hegemonic status with a million-strong army, the French couldn’t possibly do the same. What kind of hegemon doesn’t have followers? Unless they had the strength to dominate the European continent, they could only stay home and play behind closed doors. …… In Berlin, William I was still unaware of the dispute that had just occurred in Paris, a dispute that would decide their fate. The outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War on the European continent was entirely different from the Russo-Japanese War in history. Here, the forces Russia could deploy would definitely not be limited to just 20-30%. If only the British supported them, the British government would likewise find it difficult to cope. If lucky, supporting the Kingdom of Prussia with tens of millions of pounds could achieve the desired outcome. If their luck turned sour and the cost rose to over a hundred million pounds, it wouldn’t be surprising in the least. Even if it meant borrowing, consideration had to be given to whether the Kingdom of Prussia could afford to repay. In short, the British government couldn’t possibly meet all of Prussia’s requests. Recently, the Prussian government had approached nearly every European country for loans. Every little bit helped, even if some smaller nations could only provide tens of thousands of pounds in loans. They were not picky about it. Foreign Minister Mackeit frowned and said, “Just this morning, the Swiss government notified us that they are formally terminating the joint defense treaty between our two countries. They will announce it to the outside world tomorrow. This situation happened all of a sudden. The Swiss government launched a surprise attack without giving us any time to salvage the situation. It seems they are determined to draw a clear line between us.” This was clearly not good news; the Prusso-Swiss joint defense treaty was undoubtedly aimed at Austria. Historically, it was dissolved only in 1866, when Austria lost the Austro-Prussian War and could not vie for Swiss territories. The sudden decision by Switzerland to dissolve the joint defense treaty undoubtedly had underlying motives. Without even needing to think, they knew it was the handiwork of the Austrian government. William I sighed and said, “Forget it, we can’t afford to worry about these minor issues now. The urgent matter is still the Russo-Prussian War. Our frontline troops are already engaging the Russian forces. The financial aid promised by England and France has not arrived on time. The focus of the Foreign Ministry’s work now is to coordinate with these two countries to ensure they fulfill their promises as soon as possible.” It was inevitable. It seemed to be an innate skill of the English and French to screw over their allies. The British government did not coordinate in advance with domestic financial institutions and is now trying to figure out ways to raise funds. The French government, on the other hand, delayed the fundraising progress due to squabbling. In the face of a struggle for survival, Switzerland’s termination of the joint defense treaty aimed at Austria was not worth mentioning. William I fully understood the Swiss government’s actions. Now that Prussia was playing with fire, it was normal for the Swiss to worry about getting burned. In case Austria gets dragged into the water because of the Russo-Austrian alliance, wouldn’t they also be dragged into the war because of the joint defense treaty? The status of eternally neutral was hard-won, and it took considerable effort to gain recognition from various countries. If dragged into the conflict, the French could easily annex the Kingdom of Sardinia, and Austria could do the same to Switzerland. While it’s true that Switzerland and the Habsburgs have a longstanding feud, the gap in their strengths is too great for the Swiss government to muster the courage to wage war against Austria. Austria demanded the dissolution of the joint defense treaty, and the Swiss government naturally complied. After all, since the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, even if the joint defense treaty existed, it would serve no purpose. Understanding aside, William I was still very angry at the Swiss government’s move of kicking them while they were down. However, they simply didn’t have the energy to deal with so much; all issues would have to wait until after winning this war, and if they lost, everything would be over. Foreign Minister Mackeit replied confidently, “Rest assured, Your Majesty. England and France won’t stand by and watch us lose the war due to insufficient funds. Their delay is simply because they’re worried about us losing and their investments going down the drain. As long as we don’t fail on the battlefield, they will fulfill their promised assistance, even if it means paying us in installments.” As the vanguard of the anti-Russian faction, Mackeit had always believed that the Russian Empire was already in decline, and all it needed was a push for the empire to collapse. The recent outbreak of the Polish uprising took the Russians more than two months to suppress, and instead of calming down, it intensified, spreading the flames of war to Belarus. This only strengthened Mackeit’s judgment. These views were starkly different from those of William I, but since they were going to war with the Russians, it was natural to bring in these confident anti-Russian people. If they appointed a bunch of Russophobes who constantly think about compromising with the Russians, how could this war be fought?
[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]
Comments
Post a Comment